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Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-22 Jakob Runge , Reik V. Donner , Jürgen Kurths

Survey sampling is concerned with the estimation of finite population parameters. In practice, survey data suffer from item nonresponse, which is commonly handled through imputation, i.e., replacing missing values with predicted values. As…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Ziming An , Mehdi Dagdoug , David Haziza

Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Mohamed Ndaoud , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

A standard goal of model evaluation and selection is to find a model that approximates the truth well while at the same time is as parsimonious as possible. In this paper we emphasize the point of view that the models under consideration…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-10-05 Bruce Lindsay , Jiawei Liu

In today's modern era of Big data, computationally efficient and scalable methods are needed to support timely insights and informed decision making. One such method is sub-sampling, where a subset of the Big data is analysed and used as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Amalan Mahendran , Helen Thompson , James M. McGree

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…

Causal inference with observational studies often relies on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap of covariate distributions in different treatment groups. The overlap assumption is violated when some units have propensity scores…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

We derive asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when payoffs depend on a partially-identified parameter $\theta$ and the decision maker can use a point-identified parameter $\mu$ to deduce…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-19 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

We discuss a variant of Thompson sampling for nonparametric reinforcement learning in a countable classes of general stochastic environments. These environments can be non-Markov, non-ergodic, and partially observable. We show that Thompson…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-06 Jan Leike , Tor Lattimore , Laurent Orseau , Marcus Hutter

The paper establishes the central limit theorems and proposes how to perform valid inference in factor models. We consider a setting where many counties/regions/assets are observed for many time periods, and when estimation of a global…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-22 Stanislav Anatolyev , Anna Mikusheva

When multiple models are considered in regression problems, the model averaging method can be used to weigh and integrate the models. In the present study, we examined how the goodness-of-prediction of the estimator depends on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Ryo Ando , Fumiyasu Komaki

We address the problem of searching for a change point in an anomalous process among a finite set of M processes. Specifically, we address a composite hypothesis model in which each process generates measurements following a common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Liad Lea Didi , Tomer Gafni , Kobi Cohen

The effort to understand network systems in increasing detail has resulted in a diversity of methods designed to extract their large-scale structure from data. Unfortunately, many of these methods yield diverging descriptions of the same…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-27 Tiago P. Peixoto

In some estimation problems, especially in applications dealing with information theory, signal processing and biology, theory provides us with additional information allowing us to restrict the parameter space to a finite number of points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-25 Christine Choirat , Raffaello Seri

In this paper we construct optimal designs for frequentist model averaging estimation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the model averaging estimate with fixed weights in the case where the competing models are non-nested and none…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-27 Kira Alhorn , Holger Dette , Kirsten Schorning

This article investigates unsupervised classification techniques for categorical multivariate data. The study employs multivariate multinomial mixture modeling, which is a type of model particularly applicable to multilocus genotypic data.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-11 Dominique Bontemps , Wilson Toussile

This paper considers the problem of kernel regression and classification with possibly unobservable response variables in the data, where the mechanism that causes the absence of information is unknown and can depend on both predictors and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-07 Majid Mojirsheibani , William Pouliot , Andre Shakhbandaryan

The paper considers linear regression problems where the number of predictor variables is possibly larger than the sample size. The basic motivation of the study is to combine the points of view of model selection and functional regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 Alois Kneip , Pascal Sarda

We consider the bridge linear regression modeling, which can produce a sparse or non-sparse model. A crucial point in the model building process is the selection of adjusted parameters including a regularization parameter and a tuning…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-19 Shuichi Kawano

Recently, many authors have cast doubts on the validity of ABC model choice. It has been shown that the use of sufficient statistic in ABC model selection leads, apart from few exceptional cases in which the sufficient statistic is also…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-13 Erlis Ruli