Related papers: Accurate Bayesian inference for tail risk extrapol…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…
We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…
The problem of regression extrapolation, or out-of-distribution generalization, arises when predictions are required at test points outside the range of the training data. In such cases, the non-parametric guarantees for regression methods…
When assessing the impact of extreme events, it is often not just a single component, but the combined behaviour of several components which is important. Statistical modelling using multivariate generalized Pareto (GP) distributions…
Estimating the entropy rate of discrete time series is a challenging problem with important applications in numerous areas including neuroscience, genomics, image processing and natural language processing. A number of approaches have been…
We introduce a novel bivariate copula model able to capture both the central and tail dependence of the joint probability distribution. Model that can capture the dependence structure within the joint tail have important implications in…
Anomaly detection methods are widely used but often rely on ad hoc rules or strong assumptions, and they often focus on tail events, missing ``inlier'' anomalies that occur in low-density gaps between modes. We propose a unified framework…
This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…
We consider a family of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed margins and the type I elliptical dependence structure. This class of risks is common in finance, insurance, environmental and biostatistic applications. We obtain the…
Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…
We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…
Copulas provide an attractive approach for constructing multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of explicitly forecasting…
The method of extrapolating asymptotic series, based on the Self-Similar Approximation Theory, is developed. Several important questions are answered, which makes the foundation of the method unambiguous and its application straightforward.…
The multivariate generalized Pareto distribution (mGPD) is a common method for modeling extreme threshold exceedance probabilities in environmental and financial risk management. Despite its broad applicability, mGPD faces challenges due to…
Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…
We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…
In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…
In this paper, we discuss a method to define prior distributions for the threshold of a generalised Pareto distribution, in particular when its applications are directed to heavy-tailed data. We propose to assign prior probabilities to the…
A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…
An important question in health services research is the estimation of the proportion of medical expenditures that exceed a given threshold. Typically, medical expenditures present highly skewed, heavy tailed distributions, for which (a)…