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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Language Models (LMs) is key to improving their safety and reliability. Evaluations often use metrics like AUROC to assess how well UQ methods (e.g., negative sequence probabilities) correlate with task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Andrea Santilli , Adam Golinski , Michael Kirchhof , Federico Danieli , Arno Blaas , Miao Xiong , Luca Zappella , Sinead Williamson

Modern Large Language Models (LLMs) often require external tools, such as machine learning classifiers or knowledge retrieval systems, to provide accurate answers in domains where their pre-trained knowledge is insufficient. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Panagiotis Lymperopoulos , Vasanth Sarathy

Researchers have proposed several approaches for neural network (NN) based uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, most of the approaches are developed considering strong assumptions. Uncertainty quantification algorithms often perform…

Machine learning (ML) offers promising new approaches to tackle complex problems and has been increasingly adopted in chemical and materials sciences. Broadly speaking, ML models employ generic mathematical functions and attempt to learn…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-08-21 Jin Dai , Santosh Adhikari , Mingjian Wen

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Line Pouchard , Kristofer G. Reyes , Francis J. Alexander , Byung-Jun Yoon

The proliferation of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) from various institutions has highlighted the urgent need for comprehensive evaluation methods. However, current evaluation platforms, such as the widely recognized HuggingFace…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Fanghua Ye , Mingming Yang , Jianhui Pang , Longyue Wang , Derek F. Wong , Emine Yilmaz , Shuming Shi , Zhaopeng Tu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-25 Xu Wu , Lesego E. Moloko , Pavel M. Bokov , Gregory K. Delipei , Joshua Kaizer , Kostadin N. Ivanov

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models (LLMs) is a key building block for safety guardrails of daily LLM applications. Yet, even as LLM agents are increasingly deployed in highly complex tasks, most UQ research still…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Changdae Oh , Seongheon Park , To Eun Kim , Jiatong Li , Wendi Li , Samuel Yeh , Xuefeng Du , Hamed Hassani , Paul Bogdan , Dawn Song , Sharon Li

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic interpretation.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Haoyi Song , Ruihan Ji , Naichen Shi , Fan Lai , Raed Al Kontar

While past works have shown how uncertainty quantification can be applied to large language model (LLM) outputs, the question of whether resulting uncertainty guarantees still hold within sub-groupings of data remains open. In our work,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Terrance Liu , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the tendency to hallucinate, i.e., to sporadically generate false or fabricated information. This presents a major challenge, as hallucinations often appear highly convincing and users generally lack the…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Alexander Fishkov , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Nikita Kotelevskii , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

We present an automatic large language model (LLM) conversion approach that produces uncertainty-aware LLMs capable of estimating uncertainty with every prediction. Our approach is model- and data-agnostic, is computationally-efficient, and…

LLM-as-a-Judge is a widely used method for evaluating the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various tasks. We address the challenge of quantifying the uncertainty of LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations. While uncertainty…

Consistency-based methods have emerged as an effective approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large language models. These methods typically rely on several generations obtained via multinomial sampling, measuring their agreement…