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Recent empirical and theoretical studies have shown that many learning algorithms -- from linear regression to neural networks -- can have test performance that is non-monotonic in quantities such the sample size and model size. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Preetum Nakkiran , Prayaag Venkat , Sham Kakade , Tengyu Ma

Projected kernel calibration is a newly proposed frequentist calibration method, which is asymptotic normal and semi-parametric. Its loss function is usually referred to as the PK loss function. In this work, we prove the uniform…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-10 Yan Wang

Kernel ridge regression is an important nonparametric method for estimating smooth functions. We introduce a new set of conditions, under which the actual rates of convergence of the kernel ridge regression estimator under both the L_2 norm…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-03 Rui Tuo , Yan Wang , C. F. Jeff Wu

Differential privacy has become a cornerstone in the development of privacy-preserving learning algorithms. This work addresses optimizing differentially private kernel learning within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Bonwoo Lee , Cheolwoo Park , Jeongyoun Ahn

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

Scaling test-time computation with reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a reliable path to improve large language models (LLM) reasoning ability. Yet, outcome-based reward often incentivizes models to be overconfident, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Liaoyaqi Wang , Chunsheng Zuo , William Jurayj , Benjamin Van Durme , Anqi Liu

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, whether for classification and regression or for off-policy policy learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-04 Aurélien Bibaut , Antoine Chambaz , Maria Dimakopoulou , Nathan Kallus , Mark van der Laan

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to extract human-interpretable features from neural network activations, but their learned features can vary substantially across random seeds and training choices. To improve stability, we studied…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Piotr Jedryszek , Oliver M. Crook

The solution to empirical risk minimization with $f$-divergence regularization (ERM-$f$DR) is presented under mild conditions on $f$. Under such conditions, the optimal measure is shown to be unique. Examples of the solution for particular…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-25 Francisco Daunas , Iñaki Esnaola , Samir M. Perlaza , H. Vincent Poor

Low-complexity non-smooth convex regularizers are routinely used to impose some structure (such as sparsity or low-rank) on the coefficients for linear predictors in supervised learning. Model consistency consists then in selecting the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-17 Jalal Fadili , Guillaume Garrigos , Jérome Malick , Gabriel Peyré

In this work we investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. The main aim of our paper is to extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

Maximum regularized likelihood estimators (MRLEs) are arguably the most established class of estimators in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper, we derive guarantees for MRLEs in Kullback-Leibler divergence, a general measure of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-18 Rui Zhuang , Johannes Lederer

Randomized smoothing has become a leading approach for certifying adversarial robustness in machine learning models. However, a persistent gap remains between theoretical certified robustness and empirical robustness accuracy. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Blaise Delattre , Paul Caillon , Quentin Barthélemy , Erwan Fagnou , Alexandre Allauzen

Calibration has emerged as a foundational goal in ``trustworthy machine learning'', in part because of its strong decision theoretic semantics. Independent of the underlying distribution, and independent of the decision maker's utility…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Shayan Kiyani , Hamed Hassani , George Pappas , Aaron Roth

Currently, machine learning plays an important role in the lives and individual activities of numerous people. Accordingly, it has become necessary to design machine learning algorithms to ensure that discrimination, biased views, or unfair…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-09 Kazuto Fukuchi , Jun Sakuma

Modern machine learning models with high accuracy are often miscalibrated -- the predicted top probability does not reflect the actual accuracy, and tends to be over-confident. It is commonly believed that such over-confidence is mainly due…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Yu Bai , Song Mei , Huan Wang , Caiming Xiong

Despite recent success, state-of-the-art learning-based models remain highly vulnerable to input changes such as adversarial examples. In order to obtain certifiable robustness against such perturbations, recent work considers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Max Losch , David Stutz , Bernt Schiele , Mario Fritz

Recent work has highlighted the centrality of smooth calibration [Kakade and Foster, 2008] as a robust measure of calibration error. We generalize, unify, and extend previous results on smooth calibration, both as a robust calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Parikshit Gopalan , Konstantinos Stavropoulos , Kunal Talwar , Pranay Tankala

We consider the model selection consistency or sparsistency of a broad set of $\ell_1$-regularized $M$-estimators for linear and non-linear statistical models in a unified fashion. For this purpose, we propose the local structured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-29 Yen-Huan Li , Jonathan Scarlett , Pradeep Ravikumar , Volkan Cevher

Traditional finance and macroeconomic models usually assume people can form rational expectations or reach them via a learning path by minimizing prediction errors. The recent Reference Model Based Learning (RMBL) model provides a new…

General Economics · Economics 2025-02-05 Jiaoying Pei
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