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We study Empirical Risk Minimizers (ERM) and Regularized Empirical Risk Minimizers (RERM) for regression problems with convex and $L$-Lipschitz loss functions. We consider a setting where $|\cO|$ malicious outliers contaminate the labels.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-28 Geoffrey Chinot

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-05 Yan Sun , Pratik Chaudhari , Ian J. Barnett , Edgar Dobriban

In order to circumvent statistical and computational hardness results in sequential decision-making, recent work has considered smoothed online learning, where the distribution of data at each time is assumed to have bounded likeliehood…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-26 Adam Block , Alexander Rakhlin , Abhishek Shetty

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Charles Marx , Sofian Zalouk , Stefano Ermon

Randomized smoothing has shown promising certified robustness against adversaries in classification tasks. Despite such success with only zeroth-order access to base models, randomized smoothing has not been extended to a general form of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Aref Miri Rekavandi , Olga Ohrimenko , Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein

This paper studies convergence of empirical risks in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). A conventional assumption in the existing research is that empirical training data do not contain any noise but this may not be satisfied in some…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Shaoyan Guo , Huifu Xu , Liwei Zhang

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) algorithms are widely used in a variety of estimation and prediction tasks in signal-processing and machine learning applications. Despite their popularity, a theory that explains their statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Hossein Taheri , Ramtin Pedarsani , Christos Thrampoulidis

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-22 Jarosław Błasiok , Preetum Nakkiran

Probabilistic classifiers output confidence scores along with their predictions, and these confidence scores should be calibrated, i.e., they should reflect the reliability of the prediction. Confidence scores that minimize standard metrics…

In recent years, multicalibration has emerged as a desirable learning objective for ensuring that a predictor is calibrated across a rich collection of overlapping subpopulations. Existing approaches typically achieve multicalibration by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Hongyi Henry Jin , Zijun Ding , Dung Daniel Ngo , Zhiwei Steven Wu

We provide a statistical analysis of regularization-based continual learning on a sequence of linear regression tasks, with emphasis on how different regularization terms affect the model performance. We first derive the convergence rate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Xuyang Zhao , Huiyuan Wang , Weiran Huang , Wei Lin

The Expected Calibration Error (ece), the dominant calibration metric in machine learning, compares predicted probabilities against empirical frequencies of binary outcomes. This is appropriate when labels are binary events. However, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Michael Leznik

We introduce a general framework for analyzing learning algorithms based on the notion of self-regularization, which captures implicit complexity control without requiring explicit regularization. This is motivated by previous observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-19 Max Schölpple , Liu Fanghui , Ingo Steinwart

We consider a high-probability non-asymptotic confidence estimation in the $\ell^2$-regularized non-linear least-squares setting with fixed design. In particular, we study confidence estimation for local minimizers of the regularized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Ilja Kuzborskij , Yasin Abbasi Yadkori

We study robust linear regression in high-dimension, when both the dimension $d$ and the number of data points $n$ diverge with a fixed ratio $\alpha=n/d$, and study a data model that includes outliers. We provide exact asymptotics for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-24 Matteo Vilucchio , Emanuele Troiani , Vittorio Erba , Florent Krzakala

We consider learning methods based on the regularization of a convex empirical risk by a squared Hilbertian norm, a setting that includes linear predictors and non-linear predictors through positive-definite kernels. In order to go beyond…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-19 Ulysse Marteau-Ferey , Dmitrii Ostrovskii , Francis Bach , Alessandro Rudi

Calibration is a critical requirement for reliable probabilistic prediction, especially in high-risk applications. However, the theoretical understanding of which learning algorithms can simultaneously achieve high accuracy and good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Futoshi Futami , Atsushi Nitanda

When working in a high-risk setting, having well calibrated probabilistic predictive models is a crucial requirement. However, estimators for calibration error are not always able to correctly distinguish which model is better calibrated.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-18 Peter Moskvichev , Dino Sejdinovic

We study a natural extension of classical empirical risk minimization, where the hypothesis space is a random subspace of a given space. In particular, we consider possibly data dependent subspaces spanned by a random subset of the data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Andrea Della Vecchia , Ernesto De Vito , Lorenzo Rosasco

In stochastic convex optimization the goal is to minimize a convex function $F(x) \doteq {\mathbf E}_{{\mathbf f}\sim D}[{\mathbf f}(x)]$ over a convex set $\cal K \subset {\mathbb R}^d$ where $D$ is some unknown distribution and each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-28 Vitaly Feldman
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