Related papers: Federated Conditional Conformal Prediction via Gen…
Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…
Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…
Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…
Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs…
Conditional generative models map input variables to complex, high-dimensional distributions, enabling realistic sample generation in a diverse set of domains. A critical challenge with these models is the absence of calibrated uncertainty,…
Federated learning (FL) faces challenges in uncertainty quantification (UQ). Without reliable UQ, FL systems risk deploying overconfident models at under-resourced agents, leading to silent local failures despite seemingly satisfactory…
Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data…
Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…
Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…
This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…
Recently, personalized federated learning (pFL) has attracted increasing attention in privacy protection, collaborative learning, and tackling statistical heterogeneity among clients, e.g., hospitals, mobile smartphones, etc. Most existing…
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…
Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…
We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…
Conformal prediction (CP) constructs prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees under the assumption that the calibration and test distributions are identical. However, under distribution shift, existing approaches primarily align…