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Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-05 Yuchen Lu , Ben Seiyon Lee , James Doss-Gollin

We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-16 Yibo Yang , Paris Perdikaris

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-02 Eleanor D'Arcy , Jonathan A. Tawn

In presence of strong winds, wildfires feature nonlinear behavior, possibly inducing fire-spotting. We present a global sensitivity analysis of a new sub-model for turbulence and fire-spotting included in a wildfire spread model based on a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-09-17 Andrea Trucchia , Vera Egorova , Gianni Pagnini , Mélanie C. Rochoux

Due to the multitude of scales present in realistic oceanic conditions, resolving the surface stress is computationally intensive, motivating modeling approaches. In this work, a dynamic wave drag model is developed for Large Eddy…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-05-22 Aditya K. Aiyer , Luc Deike , Michael E. Mueller

Computational complexity has been the bottleneck of applying physically-based simulations on large urban areas with high spatial resolution for efficient and systematic flooding analyses and risk assessments. To address this issue of long…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-05-14 Zifeng Guo , Joao P. Leitao , Nuno E. Simoes , Vahid Moosavi

Recent research has suggested that the overall dependence of convection near coasts on large-scale atmospheric conditions is weaker than over the open ocean or inland areas. This is due to the fact that in coastal regions convection is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-11-07 Martin Bergemann , Boualem Khouider , Christian Jakob

Deep learning, particularly convolutional neural networks for image recognition, has been recently used in meteorology. One of the promising applications is developing a statistical surrogate model that converts the output images of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-22 Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama

Reliable dynamic sea level forecasts are hindered by numerous sources of uncertainty on daily-to-seasonal timescales (1-180 days) due to atmospheric boundary conditions and internal ocean variability. Studies have demonstrated that certain…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-22 Andrew Brettin , Laure Zanna , Elizabeth A. Barnes

The interaction of waves with structural barriers such as dams breaking plays a critical role in flood defense and tsunami disasters. In this work, we explore the dynamic changes in wave surfaces impacting various structural shapes, e.g.,…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-10-28 Zhaoyang Mul , Aoming Liang , Mingming Ge , Dashuai Chen , Dixia Fan , Minyi Xu

In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3D heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-21 Bicheng Yan , Dylan Robert Harp , Bailian Chen , Rajesh Pawar

Deep learning models are gaining popularity and potency in predicting polymer properties. These models can be built using pre-existing data and are useful for the rapid prediction of polymer properties. However, the performance of a deep…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-10-14 Himanshu , Tarak K Patra

Spatial patterns of water table depth (WTD) play a crucial role in shaping ecological resilience, hydrological connectivity, and human-centric systems. Generally, a large-scale (e.g., continental or global) continuous map of static WTD can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Joseph Janssen , Ardalan Tootchi , Ali A. Ameli

Numerical models have long been used to understand geoscientific phenomena, including tidal currents, crucial for renewable energy production and coastal engineering. However, their computational cost hinders generating data of varying…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Dongheon Lee , Seungmyong Jeong , Youngmin Ro

Reliable estimates of sea level return levels are crucial for coastal flooding risk assessments and for coastal flood defence design. We describe a novel method for estimating extreme sea levels that is the first to capture seasonality,…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-21 Eleanor D'Arcy , Jonathan A. Tawn , Amélie Joly , Dafni E. Sifnioti

Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

Physics simulations like computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are a computational bottleneck in computer-aided design (CAD) optimization processes. To overcome this bottleneck, one requires either an optimization framework that is highly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-29 Harsh Vardhan , David Hyde , Umesh Timalsina , Peter Volgyesi , Janos Sztipanovits

We consider the problem of large wave prediction in two-dimensional water waves. Such waves form due to the synergistic effect of dispersive mixing of smaller wave groups and the action of localized nonlinear wave interactions that leads to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-04-26 Mohammad Farazmand , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-14 Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Francesco Ragone , Pierre Borgnat , Patrice Abry , Freddy Bouchet

Stochastic wind sea is an intermediate small-scale physical process responsible for the state of the atmospheric boundary layer and the water upper layer, having dynamics of all scales. To describe behavior of this system, one could use the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-09-13 Vladislav Polnikov