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We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-12 Degui Li , Oliver Linton , Haoxuan Zhang

We develop a theoretical framework that aims to link micro-level option hedging and stock-specific factor exposure with macro-level market turbulence and explain endogenous volatility amplification during gamma-squeeze events. By explicitly…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-01 Haoying Dai

We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-16 Yeguang Chi , Wenyan Hao

We consider estimation of the spot volatility in a stochastic boundary model with one-sided microstructure noise for high-frequency limit order prices. Based on discrete, noisy observations of an It\^o semimartingale with jumps and general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Markus Bibinger

We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-04 Aleksy Leeuwenkamp , Wentao Hu

We demonstrate that machine learning methods provide a powerful framework for modelling conditional asymmetric risk. Using a large cross-section of US stocks and a comprehensive set of firm characteristics, we show that allowing for…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-28 Thomas Conlon , John Cotter , Iason Kynigakis

Fixed effect estimators of nonlinear panel data models suffer from the incidental parameter problem. This leads to two undesirable consequences in applied research: (1) point estimates are subject to large biases, and (2) confidence…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-18 Shuowen Chen

Digital currencies have become popular in the last decade due to their non-dependency and decentralized nature. The price of these currencies has seen a lot of fluctuations at times, which has increased the need for prediction. As their…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-24 Ramin Mousa , Meysam Afrookhteh , Hooman Khaloo , Amir Ali Bengari , Gholamreza Heidary

This paper investigates how to measure common market risk factors using newly proposed Panel Quantile Regression Model for Returns. By exploring the fact that volatility crosses all quantiles of the return distribution and using penalized…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-30 Frantisek Cech , Jozef Barunik

A simple method is proposed to estimate the instantaneous correlations between state variables in a hybrid system from the empirical correlations between observable market quantities such as spot rate, stock price and implied volatility.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-10 Baron Law

We develop a framework for composite likelihood estimation of parametric continuous-time stationary Gaussian processes. We derive the asymptotic theory of the associated maximum composite likelihood estimator. We implement our approach on a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Mikkel Bennedsen , Kim Christensen , Peter Christensen

Reducing financial risk is of paramount importance to investors, financial institutions, and corporations. Since the pioneering contribution of Johnson (1960), the optimal hedge ratio based on futures is regularly utilized. The current…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-02 Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

Level set estimation (LSE), the problem of identifying the set of input points where a function takes value above (or below) a given threshold, is important in practical applications. When the function is expensive-to-evaluate and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-02 Yu Inatsu , Shion Takeno , Kentaro Kutsukake , Ichiro Takeuchi

This paper introduces a unified parametric modeling approach for time-varying market betas that can accommodate continuous-time diffusion and discrete-time series models based on a continuous-time series regression model to better capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Donggyu Kim , Minseog Oh , Minjeong Song , Yazhen Wang

In this paper, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Xinbing Kong , Bin Wu , Wuyi Ye

Asynchronous trading in high-frequency financial markets introduces significant biases into econometric analysis, distorting risk estimates and leading to suboptimal portfolio decisions. Existing synchronization methods, such as the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-17 Xinbing Kong , Cheng Liu , Bin Wu

Cryptocurrency markets are characterized by extreme volatility, making accurate forecasts essential for effective risk management and informed trading strategies. Traditional deterministic (point) forecasting methods are inadequate for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-25 Grzegorz Dudek , Witold Orzeszko , Piotr Fiszeder

Beta regression models are widely used for modeling continuous data limited to the unit interval, such as proportions, fractions, and rates. The inference for the parameters of beta regression models is commonly based on maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-25 Terezinha K. A. Ribeiro , Silvia L. P. Ferrari

We are interested in the nonparametric estimation of the probability density of price returns, using the kernel approach. The output of the method heavily relies on the selection of a bandwidth parameter. Many selection methods have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-23 Matthieu Garcin

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-11 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko