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Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Lin Yang , Junlong Lyu , Wenlong Lyu , Zhitang Chen

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-12-04 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

Model averaging techniques based on resampling methods (such as bootstrapping or subsampling) have been utilized across many areas of statistics, often with the explicit goal of promoting stability in the resulting output. We provide a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Jake A. Soloff , Rina Foygel Barber , Rebecca Willett

Clinical prediction models are increasingly used to support patient care, yet many deep learning-based approaches remain unstable, as their predictions can vary substantially when trained on different samples from the same population. Such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Sara Matijevic , Christopher Yau

The aim of this paper is to compare the performances of the optimal strategy under parameters mis-specification and of a technical analysis trading strategy. The setting we consider is that of a stochastic asset price model where the trend…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-03 Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed , Grégoire Loeper , Frédéric Abergel

We propose a new, two-step empirical Bayes-type of approach for neural networks. We show in context of the nonparametric regression model that the procedure (up to a logarithmic factor) provides optimal recovery of the underlying functional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-29 Stefan Franssen , Botond Szabó

The maximum likelihood estimator in nonlinear panel data models with interactive fixed effects is biased. Several bias correction methods, such as analytical and jackknife approaches, have been proposed to enable valid inference. This paper…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-30 Haoyuan Xu , Wei Miao , Geert Dhaene , Jad Beyhum

Deep learning requires regularization mechanisms to reduce overfitting and improve generalization. We address this problem by a new regularization method based on distributional robust optimization. The key idea is to modify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-08 Aurora Cobo Aguilera , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez , Fernando Pérez-Cruz , Pablo Martínez Olmos

We consider a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. Such uncertainty not only comes from the fact that the true probability law of the underlying stochastic process is unknown, but the parametric family…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-23 Erhan Bayraktar , Tao Chen

We consider a distributionally robust formulation of stochastic optimization problems arising in statistical learning, where robustness is with respect to uncertainty in the underlying data distribution. Our formulation builds on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Andrzej Ruszczyński , Landi Zhu

This paper studies robust forward investment and consumption preferences and optimal strategies for a risk-averse and ambiguity-averse agent in an incomplete financial market with drift and volatility uncertainties. We focus on non-zero…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-17 Wing Fung Chong , Gechun Liang

We extend the classical mean-variance (MV) framework and propose a robust and sparse portfolio selection model incorporating an ellipsoidal uncertainty set to reduce the impact of estimation errors and fixed transaction costs to penalize…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-30 J. Chen , S. D. Ahipaşaoğlu , N. Zhang , Y. Yang

This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for machine learning ensemble methods. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-11 Lucas Mentch , Giles Hooker

Bootstrap techniques (also called resampling computation techniques) have introduced new advances in modeling and model evaluation. Using resampling methods to construct a series of new samples which are based on the original data set,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Riadh Kallel , Marie Cottrell , Vincent Vigneron

This paper presents a robust version of the stratified sampling method when multiple uncertain input models are considered for stochastic simulation. Various variance reduction techniques have demonstrated their superior performance in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Seung Min Baik , Eunshin Byon , Young Myoung Ko

We refer to recent inference methodology and formulate a framework for solving the distributionally robust optimization problem, where the true probability measure is inside a Wasserstein ball around the empirical measure and the radius of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-28 Xin Hai , Kihun Nam

In portfolio optimization, decision makers face difficulties from uncertainties inherent in real-world scenarios. These uncertainties significantly influence portfolio outcomes in both classical and multi-objective Markowitz models. To…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-07 Yannick Becker , Pascal Halffmann , Anita Schöbel

Uncertainty sets are at the heart of robust optimization (RO) because they play a key role in determining the RO models' tractability, robustness, and conservativeness. Different types of uncertainty sets have been proposed that model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-13 Meysam Cheramin , Richard Li-Yang Chen , Jianqiang Cheng , Ali Pinar

Robust optimization is a very popular means to address decision-making problems affected by uncertainty. Its success has been fueled by its attractive robustness and scalability properties, by ease of modeling, and by the limited…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Phebe Vayanos , Qing Jin , George Elissaios

The bootstrap is a widely used procedure for statistical inference because of its simplicity and attractive statistical properties. However, the vanilla version of bootstrap is no longer feasible computationally for many modern massive…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-16 Yingying Ma , Chenlei Leng , Hansheng Wang