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For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

Solving inverse problems involving measurement noise and modeling errors requires regularization in order to avoid data overfit. Geophysical inverse problems, in which the Earth's highly heterogeneous structure is unknown, present a…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-03-31 Ali Siahkoohi , Rafael Orozco , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

Motivated by modern data applications such as cryo-electron microscopy, the goal of classic multi-reference alignment (MRA) is to recover an unknown signal $f: \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$ from many observations that have been randomly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-23 Liping Yin , Anna Little , Matthew Hirn

We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function $u$ from noisy measurements $y$ of a known, possibly nonlinear, map $\mathcal{G}$ applied to $u$. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Masoumeh Dashti , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart , Jochen Voss

Geophysical inverse problems are often ill-posed and admit multiple solutions. Conventional discriminative methods typically yield a single deterministic solution, which fails to model the posterior distribution, cannot generate diverse…

We consider inverse problems in Hilbert spaces under correlated Gaussian noise and use a Bayesian approach to find their regularised solution. We focus on mildly ill-posed inverse problems with the noise being generalised derivative of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Natalia Bochkina , Jenovah Rodrigues

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-27 L. Martino , F. Llorente , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , J. Miguez

We consider the problem of estimating a variable number of parameters with a dynamic nature. A familiar example is finding the position of moving targets using sensor array observations. The problem is challenging in cases where either the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-03 Ashkan Panahi , Mats Viberg

Most applications of Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation and model selection in astrophysics involve the use of Monte Carlo techniques such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling. However, these techniques are time…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-01-26 Geetakrishnasai Gunapati , Anirudh Jain , P. K. Srijith , Shantanu Desai

We present a novel Bayesian model and a corresponding robust, probabilistic calibration procedure for the CORSAIR polarimeter that can be applied to other polarimeters. Our calibration procedure combines existing Mueller matrix…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-28 Alan Hsu , Jenna Samra , Steven Tomczyk , Maxim Kramar

In this article, we propose a novel method for sampling potential functions based on noisy observation data of a finite number of observables in quantum canonical ensembles, which leads to the accurate sampling of a wide class of test…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Ziheng Chen , Zhennan Zhou

Reconstructing astrophysical and cosmological fields from observations is challenging. It requires accounting for non-linear transformations, mixing of spatial structure, and noise. In contrast, forward simulators that map fields to…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-11-01 Florian List , Noemi Anau Montel , Christoph Weniger

We propose a recursive Bayesian estimation procedure for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs based on message passing in a factor graph. Unlike recursive least-squares, our method produces full posterior distributions…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-04 T. N. Nisslbeck , Wouter M. Kouw

We consider a class of linear ill-posed inverse problems arising from inversion of a compact operator with singular values which decay exponentially to zero. We adopt a Bayesian approach, assuming a Gaussian prior on the unknown function.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-09 Sergios Agapiou , Andrew M. Stuart , Yuan-Xiang Zhang

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Yuan Liao , Wenxin Jiang

Motivated by cutting-edge applications like cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), the Multi-Reference Alignment (MRA) model entails the learning of an unknown signal from repeated measurements of its images under the latent action of a group…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-11 Subhro Ghosh , Philippe Rigollet

We consider the problem of estimating cross-spectral quantities in the low-frequency regime, where long observation times limit averaging over large ensembles of periodograms, thereby preventing the use of approximate Gaussian statistics.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-16 Lorenzo Sala , Stefano Vitale

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-01 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Jae Kwang Kim

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian MAP estimator for solving the deconvolution problems when the observations are corrupted by Poisson noise. Towards this goal, a proper data fidelity term (log-likelihood) is introduced to reflect the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-03-14 François-Xavier Dupé , Jalal Fadili , Jean-Luc Starck

Efficiently sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal posteriors is a central challenge in Bayesian inference for astrophysics, especially gravitational-wave astronomy. Popular families of methods like Markov-chain Monte Carlo, nested…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-26 Miaoxin Liu , Alvin J. K. Chua
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