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Related papers: ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Est…

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Metacognition -- assessing the quality of one's own cognitive performance -- guides adaptive behavior across species. Substantial research demonstrates that confidence signals can be extracted from language model outputs, yet a fundamental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Dharshan Kumaran , Nathaniel Daw , Simon Osindero , Petar Veličković , Viorica Patraucean

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Vaishnavi Shrivastava , Ananya Kumar , Percy Liang

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Noam Michael , Daniel BenShushan , Jacob Bien , Don A. Moore

The rise of large language models (LLMs) and their tight integration into our daily life make it essential to dedicate efforts towards their trustworthiness. Uncertainty quantification for LLMs can establish more human trust into their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Daniel Yang , Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Makoto Yamada

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strikingly conflicting behaviors: they can appear steadfastly overconfident in their initial answers whilst at the same time being prone to excessive doubt when challenged. To investigate this apparent…

Human users increasingly communicate with large language models (LLMs), but LLMs suffer from frequent overconfidence in their output, even when its accuracy is questionable, which undermines their trustworthiness and perceived legitimacy.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Dennis Ulmer , Alexandra Lorson , Ivan Titov , Christian Hardmeier

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Zailong Tian , Zhuoheng Han , Yanzhe Chen , Haozhe Xu , Xi Yang , Richeng Xuan , Houfeng Wang , Lizi Liao

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, they can be easily misled by unfaithful arguments during conversations, even when their original statements are correct. To this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Yong Zhao , Yang Deng , See-Kiong Ng , Tat-Seng Chua

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable performance across various downstream tasks, but they may generate inaccurate or false information with a confident tone. One of the possible solutions is to empower the LLM confidence…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Haixia Han , Tingyun Li , Shisong Chen , Jie Shi , Chengyu Du , Yanghua Xiao , Jiaqing Liang , Xin Lin

AI-assisted decision making becomes increasingly prevalent, yet individuals often fail to utilize AI-based decision aids appropriately especially when the AI explanations are absent, potentially as they do not %understand reflect on AI's…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Zhuoyan Li , Hangxiao Zhu , Zhuoran Lu , Ziang Xiao , Ming Yin

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as automatic judges for summarization and dialogue evaluation. Prior work has documented biases such as position, verbosity, and style preferences, but largely focuses on outcomes, leaving…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Riya Tapwal , Abhishek Kumar , Carsten Maple

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of natural language tasks, but often exhibit overconfidence and generate plausible yet incorrect answers. This overconfidence, especially in models undergone…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Zeguan Xiao , Diyang Dou , Boya Xiong , Yun Chen , Guanhua Chen

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic and multi-turn workflows where they are tasked to perform actions of significant consequence. In order to deploy them reliably and manage risky outcomes in these settings, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Arka Pal , Teo Kitanovski , Arthur Liang , Akilesh Potti , Micah Goldblum

Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated potential in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but such training typically demands substantial efforts in creating and annotating data. In this work, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Hangfan Zhang , Siyuan Xu , Zhimeng Guo , Huaisheng Zhu , Shicheng Liu , Xinrun Wang , Qiaosheng Zhang , Yang Chen , Peng Ye , Lei Bai , Shuyue Hu

Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from black-box models. However, how LLMs internally generate such scores remains unknown. We address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Dharshan Kumaran , Arthur Conmy , Federico Barbero , Simon Osindero , Viorica Patraucean , Petar Veličković

Recent studies have shown that prompting can enable large language models (LLMs) to simulate specific personality traits and produce behaviors that align with those traits. However, there is limited understanding of how these simulated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Nuo Chen , Hanpei Fang , Piaohong Wang , Jiqun Liu , Tetsuya Sakai , Xiao-Ming Wu

When answering questions, LLMs can convey not only an answer, but a level of confidence about the answer being correct. This includes explicit confidence markers (e.g. giving a numeric score) as well as implicit markers, like an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Elias Stengel-Eskin , Peter Hase , Mohit Bansal

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Yuxi Xia , Loris Schoenegger , Benjamin Roth

Large Language Models (LLMs) show great promise in complex reasoning, with Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) being a key enhancement strategy. However, a prevalent issue is ``superficial self-reflection'', where models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Xiaoyuan Liu , Tian Liang , Zhiwei He , Jiahao Xu , Wenxuan Wang , Pinjia He , Zhaopeng Tu , Haitao Mi , Dong Yu