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Deep probabilistic forecasting techniques have recently been proposed for modeling large collections of time-series. However, these techniques explicitly assume either complete independence (local model) or complete dependence (global…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-16 Hongjie Chen , Ryan A. Rossi , Kanak Mahadik , Sungchul Kim , Hoda Eldardiry

Dynamic graph learning plays a pivotal role in modeling evolving relationships over time, especially for temporal link prediction tasks in domains such as traffic systems, social networks, and recommendation platforms. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Tao Zou , Chengfeng Wu , Tianxi Liao , Junchen Ye , Bowen Du

Managing microservice architectures in distributed systems is complex and resource intensive due to the high frequency and dynamic nature of inter service interactions. Accurate prediction of these future interactions can enhance adaptive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Ghazal Khodabandeh , Alireza Ezaz , Majid Babaei , Naser Ezzati-Jivan

Financial institutions obtain enormous amounts of data about user transactions and money transfers, which can be considered as a large graph dynamically changing in time. In this work, we focus on the task of predicting new interactions in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-24 Valentina Shumovskaia , Kirill Fedyanin , Ivan Sukharev , Dmitry Berestnev , Maxim Panov

Accurate modeling of inter-stock relationships is critical for stock price forecasting. However, existing methods predominantly focus on single-state relationships, neglecting the essential complementarity between dynamic and static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Long Chen , Huixin Bai , Mingxin Wang , Xiaohua Huang , Ying Liu , Jie Zhao , Ziyu Guan

Spatial-temporal data forecasting of traffic flow is a challenging task because of complicated spatial dependencies and dynamical trends of temporal pattern between different roads. Existing frameworks typically utilize given spatial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Mengzhang Li , Zhanxing Zhu

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-18 Bohan Ma , Yushan Xue , Yuan Lu , Jing Chen

Multivariate time series forecasting focuses on predicting future values based on historical context. State-of-the-art sequence-to-sequence models rely on neural attention between timesteps, which allows for temporal learning but fails to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Jake Grigsby , Zhe Wang , Nam Nguyen , Yanjun Qi

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are often trained on individual datasets, requiring specialized models and significant hyperparameter tuning due to the unique structures and features of each dataset. This approach limits the scalability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Divyansha Lachi , Mehdi Azabou , Vinam Arora , Eva Dyer

Predicting volatility in financial markets, including stocks, index ETFs, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies, remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics of these time series. In this study, I apply…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-17 Alex Li

Relational inference aims to identify interactions between parts of a dynamical system from the observed dynamics. Current state-of-the-art methods fit the dynamics with a graph neural network (GNN) on a learnable graph. They use one-step…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-21 Liming Pan , Cheng Shi , Ivan Dokmanić

Traffic forecasting is crucial for urban traffic management and guidance. However, existing methods rarely exploit the time-frequency properties of traffic speed observations, and often neglect the propagation of traffic flows from upstream…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-16 Na Zhang , Xuefeng Guan , Jun Cao , Xinglei Wang , Huayi Wu

Accurately forecasting dynamic processes on graphs, such as traffic flow or disease spread, remains a challenge. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel at modeling and forecasting spatio-temporal data, they often lack the ability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Zakaria Elabid , Lena Sasal , Daniel Busby , Abdenour Hadid

In traditional quantitative trading practice, navigating the complicated and dynamic financial market presents a persistent challenge. Fully capturing various market variables, including long-term information, as well as essential signals…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-24 Zhaofeng Zhang , Banghao Chen , Shengxin Zhu , Nicolas Langrené

Dynamic interactions between entities are prevalent in domains like social platforms, financial systems, healthcare, and e-commerce. These interactions can be effectively represented as time-evolving graphs, where predicting future…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Sidharth Agarwal , Tanishq Dubey , Shubham Gupta , Srikanta Bedathur

Multivariate time series forecasting poses an ongoing challenge across various disciplines. Time series data often exhibit diverse intra-series and inter-series correlations, contributing to intricate and interwoven dependencies that have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Wanlin Cai , Yuxuan Liang , Xianggen Liu , Jianshuai Feng , Yuankai Wu

Graph deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Unlike traditional multivariate forecasting methods, graph-based predictors leverage pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Andrea Cini , Ivan Marisca , Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi

Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been shown powerful capacity at modeling structural data. However, when adapted to downstream tasks, it usually requires abundant task-specific labeled data, which can be extremely scarce in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-04 Yupeng Hou , Binbin Hu , Wayne Xin Zhao , Zhiqiang Zhang , Jun Zhou , Ji-Rong Wen

A central question in neuroscience is how self-organizing dynamic interactions in the brain emerge on their relatively static structural backbone. Due to the complexity of spatial and temporal dependencies between different brain areas,…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-10-15 Simon Wein , Wilhelm Malloni , Ana Maria Tomé , Sebastian M. Frank , Gina-Isabelle Henze , Stefan Wüst , Mark W. Greenlee , Elmar W. Lang

Forecasting univariate time series in the financial market is a challenging endeavor. While numerous statistical and machine learning models have been introduced to address this challenge, they typically concentrate solely on analyzing…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Marco Gregnanin , Johannes De Smedt , Giorgio Gnecco , Maurizio Parton