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Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Adam Fisch , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

While test-time scaling has enabled large language models to solve highly difficult tasks, state-of-the-art results come at exorbitant compute costs. These inefficiencies can be attributed to the miscalibration of post-trained language…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Cai Zhou , Zekai Wang , Menghua Wu , Qianyu Julie Zhu , Flora C. Shi , Chenyu Wang , Ashia Wilson , Tommi Jaakkola , Stephen Bates

Flow-based generative models, such as diffusion models and flow matching models, have achieved remarkable success in learning complex data distributions. However, a critical gap remains for their deployment in safety-critical domains: the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Darshan Gadginmath , Ahmed Allibhoy , Fabio Pasqualetti

Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training exhausts an ever growing compute budget, yet recent research has demonstrated that careful document selection enables comparable model quality with only a fraction of the FLOPs. Inspired by efforts…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Xiang Kong , Tom Gunter , Ruoming Pang

Large-scale vision-and-language models, such as CLIP, are typically trained on web-scale data, which can introduce inappropriate content and lead to the development of unsafe and biased behavior. This, in turn, hampers their applicability…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Samuele Poppi , Tobia Poppi , Federico Cocchi , Marcella Cornia , Lorenzo Baraldi , Rita Cucchiara

Large language models (LLMs) often make accurate next token predictions but their confidence in these predictions can be poorly calibrated: high-confidence predictions are frequently wrong, and low-confidence predictions may be correct.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Nisarg Parikh , Ananya Sai , Pannaga Shivaswamy , Kunjal Panchal , Andrew Lan

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities, yet selecting the most reliable response from multiple LLMs remains a challenge, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Existing approaches often depend on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Aakriti Agrawal , Rohith Aralikatti , Anirudh Satheesh , Souradip Chakraborty , Amrit Singh Bedi , Furong Huang

Ensuring Large Language Model (LLM) safety is crucial, yet the lack of a clear understanding about safety mechanisms hinders the development of precise and reliable methodologies for safety intervention across diverse tasks. To better…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Weiwei Qi , Zefeng Wu , Tianhang Zheng , Zikang Zhang , Xiaojun Jia , Zhan Qin , Kui Ren

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu

This work is devoted to the finite sample prediction risk analysis of a class of linear predictors of a response $Y\in \mathbb{R}$ from a high-dimensional random vector $X\in \mathbb{R}^p$ when $(X,Y)$ follows a latent factor regression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-26 Xin Bing , Florentina Bunea , Seth Strimas-Mackey , Marten Wegkamp

Language models generate text based on successively sampling the next word. A decoding procedure based on nucleus (top-$p$) sampling chooses from the smallest possible set of words whose cumulative probability exceeds the probability $p$.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-05 Shauli Ravfogel , Yoav Goldberg , Jacob Goldberger

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Noam Michael , Daniel BenShushan , Jacob Bien , Don A. Moore

Speculative Decoding is a prominent technique for accelerating the autoregressive inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a fast draft model to propose candidate token sequences and a large target model to verify them in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Chendong Sun , Ali Mao , Lei Xu , mingmin Chen

Breaking safety constraints in control systems can lead to potential risks, resulting in unexpected costs or catastrophic damage. Nevertheless, uncertainty is ubiquitous, even among similar tasks. In this paper, we develop a novel adaptive…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-17 Shengbo Wang , Ke Li , Yin Yang , Yuting Cao , Tingwen Huang , Shiping Wen

Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Chen Li , Xiaoling Hu , Songzhu Zheng , Jiawei Zhou , Chao Chen

Robotic assistance in scientific laboratories requires procedurally correct long-horizon manipulation, reliable execution under limited supervision, and robustness in low-demonstration regimes. Such conditions greatly challenge end-to-end…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Jinghan Yang , Jingyi Hou , Xinbo Yu , Wei He , Yifan Wu

Deploying black-box LLMs requires managing uncertainty in the absence of token-level probability or true labels. We propose introducing an unsupervised conformal inference framework for generation, which integrates: generative models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Lingyou Pang , Lei Huang , Jianyu Lin , Tianyu Wang , Akira Horiguchi , Alexander Aue , Carey E. Priebe

Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to exhibit vulnerabilities despite deliberate safety alignment efforts, posing significant risks to users and society. To safeguard against the risk of policy-violating content, system-level moderation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Jingnan Zheng , Xiangtian Ji , Yijun Lu , Chenhang Cui , Weixiang Zhao , Gelei Deng , Zhenkai Liang , An Zhang , Tat-Seng Chua

Adaptive sampling algorithms are modern and efficient methods that dynamically adjust the sample size throughout the optimization process. However, they may encounter difficulties in risk-averse settings, particularly due to the challenge…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-17 Sandra Pieraccini , Tommaso Vanzan