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We provide a unifying framework for the design and analysis of multicalibrated predictors. By placing the multicalibration problem in the general setting of multi-objective learning -- where learning guarantees must hold simultaneously over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-21 Nika Haghtalab , Michael I. Jordan , Eric Zhao

The machine learning community has become increasingly concerned with the potential for bias and discrimination in predictive models. This has motivated a growing line of work on what it means for a classification procedure to be "fair." In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-07 Geoff Pleiss , Manish Raghavan , Felix Wu , Jon Kleinberg , Kilian Q. Weinberger

We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-16 Hao Song , Tom Diethe , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

Miscalibration in deep learning refers to there is a discrepancy between the predicted confidence and performance. This problem usually arises due to the overfitting problem, which is characterized by learning everything presented in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Zongbo Han , Yifeng Yang , Changqing Zhang , Linjun Zhang , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Qinghua Hu

In reinforcement learning, specifying reward functions that capture the intended task can be very challenging. Reward learning aims to address this issue by learning the reward function. However, a learned reward model may have a low error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Lukas Fluri , Leon Lang , Alessandro Abate , Patrick Forré , David Krueger , Joar Skalse

In a regression setup with deterministic design, we study the pure aggregation problem and introduce a natural extension from the Gaussian distribution to distributions in the exponential family. While this extension bears strong…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-06-06 Philippe Rigollet

The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is frequently used in data science. For discrete distributions on large state spaces, approximations of probability vectors may result in a few small negative entries, rendering the KL divergence…

Classifier calibration does not always go hand in hand with the classifier's ability to separate the classes. There are applications where good classifier calibration, i.e. the ability to produce accurate probability estimates, is more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Tuomo Alasalmi , Jaakko Suutala , Heli Koskimäki , Juha Röning

Deep neural networks often produce overconfident predictions, undermining their reliability in safety-critical applications. This miscalibration is further exacerbated under distribution shift, where test data deviates from the training…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Yilin Zhang , Cai Xu , You Wu , Ziyu Guan , Wei Zhao

Appropriate credit assignment for delay rewards is a fundamental challenge for reinforcement learning. To tackle this problem, we introduce a delay reward calibration paradigm inspired from a classification perspective. We hypothesize that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-26 Yixuan Liu , Hu Wang , Xiaowei Wang , Xiaoyue Sun , Liuyue Jiang , Minhui Xue

Recommendation systems capable of providing diverse sets of results are a focus of increasing importance, with motivations ranging from fairness to novelty and other aspects of optimizing user experience. One form of diversity of recent…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Jon Kleinberg , Emily Ryu , Éva Tardos

Learning from a limited number of samples is challenging since the learned model can easily become overfitted based on the biased distribution formed by only a few training examples. In this paper, we calibrate the distribution of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-17 Shuo Yang , Lu Liu , Min Xu

In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Pei-Shien Wu , Ryan Martin

Recursive retraining of generative models poses a critical representation challenge: when synthetic outputs are curated based on a fixed reward signal, the model tends to collapse onto a narrow set of outputs that over-optimize that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Ali Falahati , Mohammad Mohammadi Amiri , Kate Larson , Lukasz Golab

The standard paradigm of neural language generation adopts maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) as the optimizing method. From a distributional view, MLE in fact minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) between the distribution of the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Haozhe Ji , Pei Ke , Zhipeng Hu , Rongsheng Zhang , Minlie Huang

Generative classifiers are constructed on the basis of a joint probability distribution and are typically learned using closed-form procedures that rely on data statistics and maximize scores related to data fitting. However, these scores…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Aritz Pérez , Carlos Echegoyen , Guzmán Santafé

Creating impact in real-world settings requires artificial intelligence techniques to span the full pipeline from data, to predictive models, to decisions. These components are typically approached separately: a machine learning model is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-22 Bryan Wilder , Bistra Dilkina , Milind Tambe

In an increasing number of applications designers have access to multiple computer models which typically have different levels of fidelity and cost. Traditionally, designers calibrate these models one at a time against some high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Jonathan Tammer Eweis-Labolle , Tyler Johnson , Xiangyu Sun , Ramin Bostanabad

Diffusion models have attained prominence for their ability to synthesize a probability distribution for a given dataset via a diffusion process, enabling the generation of new data points with high fidelity. However, diffusion processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Shervin Khalafi , Dongsheng Ding , Alejandro Ribeiro

Generative foundation models are susceptible to implicit biases that can arise from extensive unsupervised training data. Such biases can produce suboptimal samples, skewed outcomes, and unfairness, with potentially serious consequences.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Hanze Dong , Wei Xiong , Deepanshu Goyal , Yihan Zhang , Winnie Chow , Rui Pan , Shizhe Diao , Jipeng Zhang , Kashun Shum , Tong Zhang