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Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

In this paper, we consider a wireless federated inference scenario in which devices and a server share a pre-trained machine learning model. The devices communicate statistical information about their local data to the server over a common…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Meiyi Zhu , Matteo Zecchin , Sangwoo Park , Caili Guo , Chunyan Feng , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction is an assumption-lean approach to generating distribution-free prediction intervals or sets, for nearly arbitrary predictive models, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. Conformal methods are an active research topic…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Jerzy Wieczorek

We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Daniel Schweizer , Peter Kuhn , Jayant Sharma , Shivali Dubey , Malte von Ramin , Christoph Brockt-Haßauer

Counterfactual explanations for black-box models aim to pr ovide insight into an algorithmic decision to its recipient. For a binary classification problem an individual counterfactual details which features might be changed for the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-29 James M. Adams , Gesine Reinert , Lukasz Szpruch , Carsten Maple , Andrew Elliott

We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Lars Lindemann , Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , George J. Pappas , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

Peer-prediction is a (meta-)mechanism which, given any proper scoring rule, produces a mechanism to elicit privately-held, non-verifiable information from self-interested agents. Formally, truth-telling is a strict Nash equilibrium of the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-03-24 Yuqing Kong , Grant Schoenebeck , Katrina Ligett

We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-16 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candès , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Fairness-aware machine learning has attracted a surge of attention in many domains, such as online advertising, personalized recommendation, and social media analysis in web applications. Fairness-aware machine learning aims to eliminate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Jing Ma , Ruocheng Guo , Aidong Zhang , Jundong Li

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in diverse tasks, yet their applications in high-stakes domains are often hampered by unreliable predictions. Although numerous uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Tianyi Zhao , Jian Kang , Lu Cheng

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

We extend the method of conformal prediction beyond the case relying on labeled calibration data. Replacing the calibration scores by suitable estimates, we identify conformity sets $C$ for classification and regression models that rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Jonas Flechsig , Maximilian Pilz

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in critical applications. Conformal Prediction (CP) addresses this by calibrating error rates on held-out data to provide statistically valid confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Nathan Hittesdorf , Marco Salzetta , Lu Cheng

The merit of Conformal Prediction (CP), as a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification, depends on generating prediction sets that are efficient, reflected in small average set sizes, while adaptive, meaning they signal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Navid Akhavan Attar , Hesam Asadollahzadeh , Ling Luo , Uwe Aickelin

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantees but critically relies on exchangeability, a condition often violated under distribution shift. We study the robustness of split conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-23 Xunlei Qian , Yue Xing

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Stephen Pfohl , Tony Duan , Daisy Yi Ding , Nigam H. Shah

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

While machine learning models have achieved unprecedented success in real-world applications, they might make biased/unfair decisions for specific demographic groups and hence result in discriminative outcomes. Although research efforts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Yuying Zhao , Yu Wang , Tyler Derr