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Due to the non-stationarity of time series, the distribution shift problem largely hinders the performance of time series forecasting. Existing solutions either rely on using certain statistics to specify the shift, or developing specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Wei Fan , Shun Zheng , Pengyang Wang , Rui Xie , Kun Yi , Qi Zhang , Jiang Bian , Yanjie Fu

Deep Learning (DL) models can be used to tackle time series analysis tasks with great success. However, the performance of DL models can degenerate rapidly if the data are not appropriately normalized. This issue is even more apparent when…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-24 Nikolaos Passalis , Anastasios Tefas , Juho Kanniainen , Moncef Gabbouj , Alexandros Iosifidis

As environments evolve, temporal distribution shifts can degrade time series forecasting performance. A straightforward solution is to adapt to nonstationary changes while preserving stationary dependencies. Hence, some methods disentangle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Zijian Li , Ruichu Cai , Zhenhui Yang , Haiqin Huang , Guangyi Chen , Yifan Shen , Zhengming Chen , Xiangchen Song , Kun Zhang

Distribution shift occurs when the test distribution differs from the training distribution, and it can considerably degrade performance of machine learning models deployed in the real world. Temporal shifts -- distribution shifts arising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Huaxiu Yao , Caroline Choi , Bochuan Cao , Yoonho Lee , Pang Wei Koh , Chelsea Finn

Time series classification is an important problem in real world. Due to its non-stationary property that the distribution changes over time, it remains challenging to build models for generalization to unseen distributions. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-01 Wang Lu , Jindong Wang , Xinwei Sun , Yiqiang Chen , Xing Xie

Non-stationarity is an intrinsic property of real-world time series and plays a crucial role in time series forecasting. Previous studies primarily adopt instance normalization to attenuate the non-stationarity of original series for better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Tianyu Jia , Zongxia Xie , Yanru Sun , Dilfira Kudrat , Qinghua Hu

Time series frequently manifest distribution shifts, diverse latent features, and non-stationary learning dynamics, particularly in open and evolving environments. These characteristics pose significant challenges for out-of-distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Xin Wu , Fei Teng , Xingwang Li , Ji Zhang , Tianrui Li , Qiang Duan

Unsupervised feature learning has made great strides with contrastive learning based on instance discrimination and invariant mapping, as benchmarked on curated class-balanced datasets. However, natural data could be highly correlated and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Xudong Wang , Ziwei Liu , Stella X. Yu

The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-06 Paul Michel

Deep neural networks often produce overconfident predictions, undermining their reliability in safety-critical applications. This miscalibration is further exacerbated under distribution shift, where test data deviates from the training…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Yilin Zhang , Cai Xu , You Wu , Ziyu Guan , Wei Zhao

Deep learning has shown impressive results in a variety of time series forecasting tasks, where modeling the conditional distribution of the future given the past is the essence. However, when this conditional distribution is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Siqi Liu , Andreas Lehrmann

In-Context Learning (ICL) allows Large Language Models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks with just a few examples, but their predictions often suffer from systematic biases, leading to unstable performance in classification. While calibration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Korel Gundem , Juncheng Dong , Dennis Zhang , Vahid Tarokh , Zhengling Qi

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Yijun Li , Cheuk Hang Leung , Qi Wu

Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Wai Leong Ng , Xinyi Tang , Mun Lau Cheung , Jiacheng Gao , Chun Yip Yau , Holger Dette

We develop a new method to detect anomalies within time series, which is essential in many application domains, reaching from self-driving cars, finance, and marketing to medical diagnosis and epidemiology. The method is based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Tim Schneider , Chen Qiu , Marius Kloft , Decky Aspandi Latif , Steffen Staab , Stephan Mandt , Maja Rudolph

Time-series anomaly detection deals with the problem of detecting anomalous timesteps by learning normality from the sequence of observations. However, the concept of normality evolves over time, leading to a "new normal problem", where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Dongmin Kim , Sunghyun Park , Jaegul Choo

The transformer's remarkable ability to perform in-context learning (ICL) has sparked a wide range of studies designed to understand its strengths and limitations. However, a theoretical understanding of when ICL can and cannot generalize…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Soo Min Kwon , Alec S. Xu , Can Yaras , Laura Balzano , Qing Qu

Instance segmentation with neural networks is an essential task in environment perception. In many works, it has been observed that neural networks can predict false positive instances with high confidence values and true positives with low…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Kira Maag , Matthias Rottmann , Serin Varghese , Fabian Hueger , Peter Schlicht , Hanno Gottschalk

The variety of complex algorithmic approaches for tackling time-series classification problems has grown considerably over the past decades, including the development of sophisticated but challenging-to-interpret deep-learning-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Trent Henderson , Annie G. Bryant , Ben D. Fulcher

The use of machine learning methods helps to improve decision making in different fields. In particular, the idea of bridging predictions (machine learning models) and prescriptions (optimization problems) is gaining attention within the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Antonio Alcántara , Carlos Ruiz
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