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Natural distribution shift causes a deterioration in the perception performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs). This comprehensive analysis for real-world traffic data addresses: 1) investigating the effect of natural distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Fabian Diet , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Michelle Karg

How is climate change altering the global patterns, frequency, and intensity of drought? To investigate this, we analyzed global drought events from 2000-2020 using a composite of hydrological indices ($\Sigma$(ET-P), SSMI, and GRACE-DSI).…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-27 Qianqian Han , Yijian Zeng , Bob Su

We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-19 Daniel Kapp , Marco Vega

We present longitudinal analysis of the evolution of inter-organizational disaster coordination networks during natural disasters. We suggest that social networks are a useful paradigm for exploring this complex phenomenon from both…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-03-31 Alireza Abbasi , Liaquat Hossain , Naim Kapucu

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events has posed significant risks to the operation of power grids. During long-duration extreme weather events, microgrid formation (MF) is an essential solution to enhance the resilience of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-03 Ziang Liu , Sheng Cai , Qiuwei Wu , Xinwei Shen , Xuan Zhang , Nikos Hatziargyriou

Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-14 Haotian Xie , Haoxian Liu , Jingfang Fan , Ying Tang

Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Whitney K. Huang , Adam H. Monahan , Francis W. Zwiers

he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-11 Christian Mulomba Mukendi , Hyebong Choi

Sequential tropical cyclone hazards--two tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in the same region within a short time--are becoming increasingly likely. This study investigates situational preparedness dynamics for six sequential TC…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-24 Tianle Duan , Qingchun Li , Fengxiu Zhang , Dazhi Xi , Ning Lin

Recent wildfires in Australia have led to considerable economic loss and property destruction, and there is increasing concern that climate change may exacerbate their intensity, duration, and frequency. Hazard quantification for extreme…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-12 Daniela Cisneros , Jordan Richards , Ashok Dahal , Luigi Lombardo , Raphaël Huser

Natural disasters ravage the world's cities, valleys, and shores on a regular basis. Deploying precise and efficient computational mechanisms for assessing infrastructure damage is essential to channel resources and minimize the loss of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-01-28 Thomas Y. Chen

Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-12-31 Poulomi Ganguli , Auroop R. Ganguly

Responding to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and wildfires, is a laborious task performed by on-the-ground emergency responders and analysts. Social media has emerged as a low-latency data source to quickly understand…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Ethan Weber , Nuria Marzo , Dim P. Papadopoulos , Aritro Biswas , Agata Lapedriza , Ferda Ofli , Muhammad Imran , Antonio Torralba

This paper develops a mathematical model and statistical methods to quantify trends in presence/absence observations of snow cover (not depths) and applies these in an analysis of Northern Hemispheric observations extracted from satellite…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-14 Yisu Jia , Robert Lund , Jiajie Kong , Jamie Dyer , Jonathan Woody , J. S. Marron

Climate hazards can escalate into humanitarian disasters. Understanding their trajectories -- considering hazard intensity, human exposure, and societal vulnerability -- is essential for effective anticipatory action. The International…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-06-05 Khalil Teber , Mélanie Weynants , Fabian Gans , Miguel D. Mahecha

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 D. Sornette

Development of sustainable insurance for cyber risks, with associated benefits, inter alia requires reduction of ambiguity of the risk. Considering cyber risk, and data breaches in particular, as a man-made catastrophe clarifies the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-17 Spencer Wheatley , Annette Hofmann , Didier Sornette

Climate change is amplifying extreme precipitation events in many regions and imposes substantial challenges for the resilience of road drainage infrastructure. Conventional design storm methodologies, which rely on historical trends of…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-08-15 Mohammad Fereshtehpour , Rashid Bashir , Neil F. Tandon

Natural hazards are becoming increasingly expensive as climate change and development are exposing communities to greater risks. Preparation and recovery are critical for climate change resilience, and social media are being used more and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-03-06 Meredith T. Niles , Benjamin F. Emery , Andrew J. Reagan , Peter Sheridan Dodds , Christopher M. Danforth

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Jingyi Gu , Xuan Zhang , Guiling Wang