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Controlling stochastic systems with unknown dynamics and under complex specifications is specially challenging in safety-critical settings, where performance guarantees are essential. We propose a data-driven policy synthesis framework that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-17 Ibon Gracia , Morteza Lahijanian

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is the next generation of air transportation that includes new entrants such as electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, increasingly autonomous flight operations, and small UAS package delivery.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Luis E. Alvarez , Marc W. Brittain , Kara Breeden

The problem of constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) is investigated, where an agent aims to maximize the expected accumulated discounted reward subject to multiple constraints on its utilities/costs. A new primal-dual approach is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Tianjiao Li , Ziwei Guan , Shaofeng Zou , Tengyu Xu , Yingbin Liang , Guanghui Lan

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Thom Badings , Thiago D. Simão , Marnix Suilen , Nils Jansen

In this paper, we consider Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with error states. Error states are those states entering which is undesirable or dangerous. We define the risk with respect to a policy as the probability of entering such a state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-09-13 P. Geibel , F. Wysotzki

We treat the problem of risk-aware control for stochastic shortest path (SSP) on Markov decision processes (MDP). Typically, expectation is considered for SSP, which however is oblivious to the incurred risk. We present an alternative view,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-04 Tobias Meggendorfer

We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Ariel Neufeld , Julian Sester , Mario Šikić

Many applications -- including power systems, robotics, and economics -- involve a dynamical system interacting with a stochastic and hard-to-model environment. We adopt a reinforcement learning approach to control such systems.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Abed AlRahman Al Makdah , Oliver Kosut , Lalitha Sankar , Shaofeng Zou

In the face of increasing financial uncertainty and market complexity, this study presents a novel risk-aware financial forecasting framework that integrates advanced machine learning techniques with intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-23 Safiye Turgay , Serkan Erdoğan , Željko Stević , Orhan Emre Elma , Tevfik Eren , Zhiyuan Wang , Mahmut Baydaş

We introduce Dynamic Contextual Markov Decision Processes (DCMDPs), a novel reinforcement learning framework for history-dependent environments that generalizes the contextual MDP framework to handle non-Markov environments, where contexts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Guy Tennenholtz , Nadav Merlis , Lior Shani , Martin Mladenov , Craig Boutilier

In this paper, we study the behavior of the Upper Confidence Bound-Variance (UCB-V) algorithm for the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems, a variant of the canonical Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm that incorporates variance estimates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yingying Fan , Yuxuan Han , Jinchi Lv , Xiaocong Xu , Zhengyuan Zhou

We consider a reinforcement learning (RL) setting in which the agent interacts with a sequence of episodic MDPs. At the start of each episode the agent has access to some side-information or context that determines the dynamics of the MDP…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-24 Aditya Modi , Nan Jiang , Satinder Singh , Ambuj Tewari

In this paper, we consider an integrated MSP-MDP framework which captures features of Markov decision process (MDP) and multistage stochastic programming (MSP). The integrated framework allows one to study a dynamic decision-making process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-29 Zhiyao Yang , Zhiping Chen , Huifu Xu

We consider the problem of designing policies for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with dynamic coherent risk objectives and constraints. We begin by formulating the problem in a Lagrangian framework. Under the assumption that the risk…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Ugo Rosolia , Michel D. Ingham , Richard M. Murray , Aaron D. Ames

We study infinite-horizon robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) on continuous state spaces with structured rectangular ambiguity set. The proposed ambiguity set falls within the convex hull of unknown generating kernels. We utilize the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Mengmeng Li , Yifan Hu , Daniel Kuhn , Yan Li

In mixed-autonomy traffic networks, autonomous vehicles (AVs) are required to make sequential routing decisions under uncertainty caused by dynamic and heterogeneous interactions with human-driven vehicles (HDVs). Early-stage greedy…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-12 Yu Bai , Yiming Li , Xi Xiong

In this paper, we consider the problem of controlling a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) in order to actively estimate its state trajectory over a fixed horizon with minimal uncertainty. We pose a novel active smoothing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-06 Timothy L. Molloy , Girish N. Nair

We consider the problem of constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP) where an agent interacts with a unichain Markov Decision Process. At every interaction, the agent obtains a reward. Further, there are $K$ cost functions. The agent aims…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Mridul Agarwal , Qinbo Bai , Vaneet Aggarwal

A fundamental (and largely open) challenge in sequential decision-making is dealing with non-stationary environments, where exogenous environmental conditions change over time. Such problems are traditionally modeled as non-stationary…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Baiting Luo , Yunuo Zhang , Abhishek Dubey , Ayan Mukhopadhyay

In the optimization of dynamical systems, the variables typically have constraints. Such problems can be modeled as a constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP). This paper considers a model-free approach to the problem, where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Qinbo Bai , Vaneet Aggarwal , Ather Gattami