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In this paper, we deal with the problem of calibrating thresholding rules in the setting of Poisson intensity estimation. By using sharp concentration inequalities, oracle inequalities are derived and we establish the optimality of our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-08 Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Vincent Rivoirard

Reliable determination of sensory thresholds is the holy grail of signal detection theory. However, there exists no gold standard for the estimation of thresholds based on neurophysiological parameters, although a reliable estimation method…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-10-01 Achim Schilling , Richard Gerum , Patrick Krauss , Claus Metzner , Konstantin Tziridis , Holger Schulze

Time-series anomaly detection deals with the problem of detecting anomalous timesteps by learning normality from the sequence of observations. However, the concept of normality evolves over time, leading to a "new normal problem", where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Dongmin Kim , Sunghyun Park , Jaegul Choo

We propose a new \textit{quadratic programming-based} method of approximating a nonstandard density using a multivariate Gaussian density. Such nonstandard densities usually arise while developing posterior samplers for unobserved…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-14 Abhishek K. Umrawal , Joshua C. C. Chan

Choosing a decision threshold is one of the challenging job in any classification tasks. How much the model is accurate, if the deciding boundary is not picked up carefully, its entire performance would go in vain. On the other hand, for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Bharat Bohara

In the era of fast-paced precision medicine, observational studies play a major role in properly evaluating new treatments in clinical practice. Yet, unobserved confounding can significantly compromise causal conclusions drawn from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

We consider tests of hypotheses when the parameters are not identifiable under the null in semiparametric models, where regularity conditions for profile likelihood theory fail. Exponential average tests based on integrated profile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-25 Rui Song , Michael R. Kosorok , Jason P. Fine

Classical peaks over threshold analysis is widely used for statistical modeling of sample extremes, and can be supplemented by a model for the sizes of clusters of exceedances. Under mild conditions a compound Poisson process model allows…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-14 Mária Süveges , Anthony C. Davison

Boosting has garnered significant interest across both machine learning and statistical communities. Traditional boosting algorithms, designed for fully observed random samples, often struggle with real-world problems, particularly with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-19 Yuan Bian , Grace Y. Yi , Wenqing He

The stratified proportional intensity model generalizes Cox's proportional intensity model by allowing different groups of the population under study to have distinct baseline intensity functions. In this article, we consider the problem of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Amélie Detais , Jean-François Dupuy

In most machine learning applications, classification accuracy is not the primary metric of interest. Binary classifiers which face class imbalance are often evaluated by the $F_\beta$ score, area under the precision-recall curve, Precision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-02 Alan Mackey , Xiyang Luo , Elad Eban

We propose a post-hoc adaptive conformal anomaly detection method for monitoring time series that leverages predictions from pre-trained foundation models without requiring additional fine-tuning. Our method yields an interpretable anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Natalia Martinez Gil , Fearghal O'Donncha , Wesley M. Gifford , Nianjun Zhou , Dhaval C. Patel , Roman Vaculin

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intensity of a Poisson process $N$ by using thresholding rules. In this paper, the intensity, defined as the derivative of the mean measure of $N$ with respect to $ndx$ where $n$ is a fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-01-22 Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Vincent Rivoirard

To tackle massive data, subsampling is a practical approach to select the more informative data points. However, when responses are expensive to measure, developing efficient subsampling schemes is challenging, and an optimal sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-11 Jing Wang , HaiYing Wang , Shifeng Xiong

Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Sherri Rose

Threshold tests have recently been proposed as a useful method for detecting bias in lending, hiring, and policing decisions. For example, in the case of credit extensions, these tests aim to estimate the bar for granting loans to white and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Emma Pierson , Sam Corbett-Davies , Sharad Goel

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

Class imbalanced datasets are common in real-world applications that range from credit card fraud detection to rare disease diagnostics. Several popular classification algorithms assume that classes are approximately balanced, and hence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-10 Val Andrei Fajardo , David Findlay , Roshanak Houmanfar , Charu Jaiswal , Jiaxi Liang , Honglei Xie

To increase statistical efficiency in a randomized experiment, researchers often use stratification (i.e., blocking) in the design stage. However, conventional practices of stratification fail to exploit valuable information about the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Zikai Li

Anomaly detection has many important applications, such as monitoring industrial equipment. Despite recent advances in anomaly detection with deep-learning methods, it is unclear how existing solutions would perform under…

Sound · Computer Science 2022-04-06 Bingqing Chen , Luca Bondi , Samarjit Das