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We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Alfredo Lopez , Florian Sobieczky

Learning to infer graph representations and performing spatial reasoning in a complex surgical environment can play a vital role in surgical scene understanding in robotic surgery. For this purpose, we develop an approach to generate the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-14 Mobarakol Islam , Lalithkumar Seenivasan , Lim Chwee Ming , Hongliang Ren

Spatiotemporal graph neural networks have shown to be effective in time series forecasting applications, achieving better performance than standard univariate predictors in several settings. These architectures take advantage of a graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Andrea Cini , Ivan Marisca , Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi

When modeling geostatistical or areal data, spatial structure is commonly accommodated via a covariance function for the former and a neighborhood structure for the latter. In both cases the resulting spatial structure is a consequence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-20 Garritt L. Page , Fernando A. Quintana

Spatio-temporal kriging is an important problem in web and social applications, such as Web or Internet of Things, where things (e.g., sensors) connected into a web often come with spatial and temporal properties. It aims to infer knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Chuanpan Zheng , Xiaoliang Fan , Cheng Wang , Jianzhong Qi , Chaochao Chen , Longbiao Chen

This paper investigates methods for estimating uncertainty in semantic segmentation predictions derived from satellite imagery. Estimating uncertainty for segmentation presents unique challenges compared to standard image classification,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Melanie Rey , Andriy Mnih , Maxim Neumann , Matt Overlan , Drew Purves

Variety of machine learning problems can be formulated as an optimization task for some (surrogate) loss function. Calculation of loss function can be viewed in terms of stochastic computation graphs (SCG). We use this formalism to analyze…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-18 Eugene Golikov , Vlad Zhukov , Maksim Kretov

In this paper we introduce a novel way of estimating prediction uncertainty in deep networks through the use of uncertainty surrogates. These surrogates are features of the penultimate layer of a deep network that are forced to match…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-19 Radhakrishna Achanta , Natasa Tagasovska

In this paper, we describe a representation for spatial information, called the stochastic map, and associated procedures for building it, reading information from it, and revising it incrementally as new information is obtained. The map…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 Randall Smith , Matthew Self , Peter Cheeseman

Interpretable surrogates of black-box predictors trained on high-dimensional tabular datasets can struggle to generate comprehensible explanations in the presence of correlated variables. We propose a model-agnostic interpretable surrogate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-05 Xavier Renard , Nicolas Woloszko , Jonathan Aigrain , Marcin Detyniecki

Prediction+optimization is a common real-world paradigm where we have to predict problem parameters before solving the optimization problem. However, the criteria by which the prediction model is trained are often inconsistent with the goal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Kai Yan , Jie Yan , Chuan Luo , Liting Chen , Qingwei Lin , Dongmei Zhang

Neural forecasting of spatiotemporal time series drives both research and industrial innovation in several relevant application domains. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are often the core component of the forecasting architecture. However, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Andrea Cini , Ivan Marisca , Filippo Maria Bianchi , Cesare Alippi

Visual segmentation is a key perceptual function that partitions visual space and allows for detection, recognition and discrimination of objects in complex environments. The processes underlying human segmentation of natural images are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-05-03 Jonathan Vacher , Pascal Mamassian , Ruben Coen-Cagli

Spatially-sparse predictors are good models for brain decoding: they give accurate predictions and their weight maps are interpretable as they focus on a small number of regions. However, the state of the art, based on total variation or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-22 Gaël Varoquaux , Matthieu Kowalski , Bertrand Thirion

Local graph partitioning is a key graph mining tool that allows researchers to identify small groups of interrelated nodes (e.g. people) and their connective edges (e.g. interactions). Because local graph partitioning is primarily focused…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-03-15 Scott Freitas , Hanghang Tong , Nan Cao , Yinglong Xia

This paper considers the creation of parametric surrogate models for applications in science and engineering where the goal is to predict high-dimensional spatiotemporal output quantities of interest, such as pressure, temperature and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-03-24 Chi Hoang , Kenny Chowdhary , Kookjin Lee , Jaideep Ray

This work introduces the definition of observation-specific explanations to assign a score to each data point proportional to its importance in the definition of the prediction process. Such explanations involve the identification of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-16 Valentina Ghidini , Michael Multerer , Jacopo Quizi , Rohan Sen

Current simulation of metal forging processes use advanced finite element methods. Such methods consist of solving mathematical equations, which takes a significant amount of time for the simulation to complete. Computational time can be…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-20 Meduri Venkata Shivaditya , José Alves , Francesca Bugiotti , Frederic Magoules

We propose topology-aware feature partitioning into $k$ disjoint partitions for given scene features as a method for object-centric representation learning. To this end, we propose to use minimum $s$-$t$ graph cuts as a partitioning method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-06 Adeel Pervez , Phillip Lippe , Efstratios Gavves

This paper describes a simple, but effective sampling method for optimizing and learning a discrete approximation (or surrogate) of a multi-dimensional function along a one-dimensional line segment of interest. The method does not rely on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Dimitri J. Papageorgiou , Jan Kronqvist , Krishnan Kumaran