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Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Medical imaging classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, which prevents their deployment in medical clinics. We present an algorithm that can modify any classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Roy Hirsch , Jacob Goldberger

Several uncertainty estimation methods have been recently proposed for machine translation evaluation. While these methods can provide a useful indication of when not to trust model predictions, we show in this paper that the majority of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Chrysoula Zerva , André F. T. Martins

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

Split conformal prediction is a computationally efficient method for performing distribution-free predictive inference in regression. It involves, however, a one-time random split of the data, and the result depends on the particular split.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-22 Aldo Solari , Vera Djordjilović

We advocate the use of conformal prediction (CP) to enhance rule-based multi-label classification (MLC). In particular, we highlight the mutual benefit of CP and rule learning: Rules have the ability to provide natural (non-)conformity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Eyke Hüllermeier , Johannes Fürnkranz , Eneldo Loza Mencia

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Mira Jürgens , Thomas Mortier , Eyke Hüllermeier , Viktor Bengs , Willem Waegeman

We extend the method of conformal prediction beyond the case relying on labeled calibration data. Replacing the calibration scores by suitable estimates, we identify conformity sets $C$ for classification and regression models that rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Jonas Flechsig , Maximilian Pilz

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Farbod Siahkali , Ashwin Verma , Vijay Gupta

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantees but critically relies on exchangeability, a condition often violated under distribution shift. We study the robustness of split conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-23 Xunlei Qian , Yue Xing

Classification is an important task in many fields including biomedical research and machine learning. Traditionally, a classification rule is constructed based a bunch of labeled data. Recently, due to technological innovation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-19 Jing Wang , Eunsik Park , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

We consider learning a sequence classifier without labeled data by using sequential output statistics. The problem is highly valuable since obtaining labels in training data is often costly, while the sequential output statistics (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-30 Yu Liu , Jianshu Chen , Li Deng

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Margarida M. Campos , João Calém , Sophia Sklaviadis , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-07 Sangwoo Park , Kfir M. Cohen , Osvaldo Simeone

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Roberto I. Oliveira , Paulo Orenstein , Thiago Ramos , João Vitor Romano

This paper develops novel conformal prediction methods for classification tasks that can automatically adapt to random label contamination in the calibration sample, leading to more informative prediction sets with stronger coverage…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-23 Matteo Sesia , Y. X. Rachel Wang , Xin Tong

In semantic segmentation, the creation of pixel-level labels for training data incurs significant costs. To address this problem, semi-supervised learning, which utilizes a small number of labeled images alongside unlabeled images to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Takahiro Mano , Reiji Saito , Kazuhiro Hotta