Related papers: Mechanistic-statistical inference of mosquito dyna…
In this paper, we propose a simplified bidimensional Wolbachia infestation model in a population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, preserving the main features associated with the biology of this species that can be found in higher-dimensional…
Insect swarms are a model system for understanding collective behavior where the collective motion appears in disorder. To initiate and maintain a swarm in place, flying insects often use a visual external cue called a marker. In…
Artificial releases of Wolbachia-infected Aedes mosquitoes have been under study in the past years for fighting vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and zika. Several strains of this bacterium cause cytoplasmic incompatibility…
Advances in field techniques have lead to an increase in spatially-referenced capture-recapture data to estimate a species' population size as well as other demographic parameters and patterns of space usage. Statistical models for these…
A theory is provided for the estimation of home ranges of animals from the standard mark-recapture technique in which data are collected by capturing, tagging and recapturing the animals. The theoretical tool used is the Fokker-Planck…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak…
We study the discrete-time dynamical systems of a model of wild mosquito population with distinct birth (denoted by $\beta$) and death (denoted by $\mu$) rates. The case $\mu=\beta$ was considered in our previous work. In this paper we…
We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent forcing using analytic techniques which allow us to disentangle the interaction of stochasticity and external forcing. The model is formulated as a…
1. Complex systems of moving and interacting objects are ubiquitous in the natural and social sciences. Predicting their behavior often requires models that mimic these systems with sufficient accuracy, while accounting for their inherent…
This work investigates the benefits of implementing a systematic approach to social isolation policies during epidemics. We develop a mixed integer data-driven model predictive control (MPC) scheme based on an SIHRD model which is…
We study the discrete-time dynamical systems associated to a stage-structured wild and sterile mosquito population. We describe all fixed points of the evolution operator (which depends on five parameters) of mosquito population and show…
The effective reproduction number is an important descriptor of an infectious disease epidemic. In small populations, ideally we would estimate the effective reproduction number using a Markov Jump Process (MJP) model of the spread of…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
This study presents a new approach for estimating confidence in machine learning model predictions, specifically in regression tasks utilizing Earth Observation (EO) data, with a particular focus on mosquito abundance (MA) estimation. We…
A numerical framework for the 'real-time' estimation of the infection risk from airborne diseases (e.g., SARS-CoV-2) in indoor spaces such as hospitals, restaurants, cinemas or teaching rooms is proposed. The developed model is based on the…
Measles is a significant source of global disease burden and child mortality. Measles vaccination through routine immunization (RI) programs in high-burden settings remains a challenge due to poor health care infrastructure and access.…
In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
We are interested in describing the infected size of the SIS Epidemic model using Birth-Death Markov process. The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is defined within a population of constant size $M$; the size is kept constant by…
Characterizing sexual contact networks is essential for understanding sexually transmitted infections, but principled parameter inference for mechanistic network models remains challenging. We develop a discrete-time simulation framework…