Related papers: A Probabilistic Model for Forest Fires
Wildfires pose a severe threat to the ecosystem and economy, and risk assessment is typically based on fire danger indices such as the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) used in Australia. Studying the joint tail dependence structure…
In a recent paper, we have introduced a new model to describe front propagation in bushfires. This model describes temperature diffusion in view of an ignition process induced by an interaction kernel, the effect of the environmental wind…
We propose a new point process model that combines, in the spatio-temporal setting, both multi-scaling by hybridization and hardcore distances. Our so-called hybrid Strauss hardcore point process model allows different types of interaction,…
Based on decision trees, many fields have arguably made tremendous progress in recent years. In simple words, decision trees use the strategy of "divide-and-conquer" to divide the complex problem on the dependency between input features and…
Anthropogenic climate change has increased the probability, severity, and duration of heat waves and droughts, subsequently escalating the risk of wildfires. Mathematical and computational models can enhance our understanding of wildfire…
Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this…
Wildfires pose a significant natural disaster risk to populations and contribute to accelerated climate change. As wildfires are also affected by climate change, extreme wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent. Although they occur less…
Turbulence is of paramount importance in wildland fire propagation since it randomly transports the hot air mass that can pre-heat and then ignite the area ahead the fire. This contributes to give a random character to the firefront…
Various flame tracking techniques are often used in hydrodynamic simulations. Their use is indispensable when resolving actual scale of the flame is impossible. We show that parameters defining "artificial flame" propagation found from…
This article investigates a mathematical model for bushfire propagation, focusing on the existence and properties of translating solutions. We obtain quantitative bounds on the environmental diffusion coefficient and ignition kernels,…
A probabilistic framework is proposed for the optimization of efficient switched control strategies for physical systems dominated by stochastic excitation. In this framework, the equation for the state trajectory is replaced with an…
Previous work indicates that tropical forest can exist as an alternative stable state to savanna. Therefore, perturbation by climate change or human impact may lead to crossing of a tipping point beyond which there is rapid forest dieback…
In this work, an individual-based model of forest insect outbreaks is presented. The results obtained show that the outbreak is an emerging feature of the system. It is a common product of the characteristics of insects, the environment in…
The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive…
In this work, we study the propagation of wildfires using an advection--diffusion--reaction model which also includes convective and radiative heat loss. An existing model is discussed \cite{asensio_2002} and a physically consistent…
Due to severe societal and environmental impacts, wildfire prediction using multi-modal sensing data has become a highly sought-after data-analytical tool by various stakeholders (such as state governments and power utility companies) to…
Invasive pine trees pose a threat to biodiversity in a variety of Southern Hemisphere countries, but understanding of the dynamics of invasions and the factors that retard or accelerate spread is limited. Here, we consider the past models…
In a complex community, species continuously adapt to each other. On rare occasions, the adaptation of a species can lead to the extinction of others, and even its own. "Adaptive dynamics" is the standard mathematical framework to describe…
Investigating the health impacts of wildfire smoke requires data on people's exposure to fine particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$) across space and time. In recent years, it has become common to use machine learning models to fill gaps in…
In this paper a randomized version of the Beverton-Holt type discrete model is proposed. Its solution stochastic process and the random steady state are determined. Its first probability density function and second probability density…