Related papers: A Probabilistic Model for Forest Fires
Tree-grass coexistence in savanna ecosystems depends strongly on environmental disturbances out of which crucial is fire. Most modeling attempts in the literature lack stochastic approach to fire occurrences which is essential to reflect…
Thanks to recent advances in generative AI, computers can now simulate realistic and complex natural processes. We apply this capability to predict how wildfires spread, a task made difficult by the unpredictable nature of fire and the…
We consider a deterministic discrete-time model of fire spread introduced by Hartnell [1995] and the problem of minimizing the number of burnt vertices when deploying a limited number of firefighters per timestep. We consider the process…
The discrete time risk model with two seasons and dependent claims is considered. An algorithm is created for computing the values of the ultimate ruin probability. Theoretical results are illustrated with numerical examples.
Time-varying covariates are often available in survival studies and estimation of the hazard function needs to be updated as new information becomes available. In this paper, we investigate several different easy-to-implement ways that…
The one-dimensional forest-fire model including lightnings is studied numerically and analytically. For the tree correlation function, a new correlation length with critical exponent \nu ~ 5/6 is found by simulations. A Hamiltonian…
Forest transitions, characterized by dynamic shifts between forest, agricultural, and abandoned lands, are complex phenomena. This study developed a stochastic differential equation model to capture the intricate dynamics of these…
We turn the stochastic critical forest-fire model introduced by Drossel and Schwabl (PRL 69, 1629, 1992) into a deterministic threshold model. This new model has many features in common with sandpile and earthquake models of Self-Organized…
Fires and rainfall are major mechanisms that regulate woody and grassy biomasses in savanna ecosystems. Conditions of long-lasting coexistence of trees and grasses have been mainly studied using continuous-time modelling of tree-grass…
We present a systematic study of corrections to scaling in the self-organized critical forest-fire model. The analysis of the steady-state condition for the density of trees allows us to pinpoint the presence of these corrections, which…
Cell2Fire is a new cell-based forest and wildland landscape fire growth simulator that is open-source and exploits parallelism to support the modelling of fire growth cross large spatial and temporal scales in a timely manner. The fire…
We consider random dynamics on a uniform random recursive tree with $n$ vertices. Successively, in a uniform random order, each edge is either set on fire with some probability $p_n$ or fireproof with probability $1-p_n$. Fires propagate in…
This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…
Understanding the dynamics of wildfire is crucial for developing management and intervention strategies. Mathematical and computational models can be used to improve our understanding of wildfire processes and dynamics. This paper presents…
We introduce a new mathematical model to explore the dynamic relationship between prescribed burning and bushfire occurrence, formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model admits a unique steady-state, and its…
Wildfire forecasting problems usually rely on complex grid-based mathematical models, mostly involving Computational fluid dynamics(CFD) and Celluar Automata, but these methods have always been computationally expensive and difficult to…
The forest fire model is a reaction-diffusion model where energy, in the form of trees, is injected uniformly, and burned (dissipated) locally. We show that the spatial distribution of fires forms a novel geometric structure where the…
In surveys, the interest lies in estimating finite population parameters such as population totals and means. In most surveys, some auxiliary information is available at the estimation stage. This information may be incorporated in the…
Random forests have become an established tool for classification and regression, in particular in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of complex predictor-response relationships. For bounded outcome variables restricted to the…
Recent wildfires in the United States have resulted in loss of life and billions of dollars, destroying countless structures and forests. Fighting wildfires is extremely complex. It is difficult to observe the true state of fires due to…