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We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-08 Stanislav Anatolyev , Jozef Barunik

Generating accurate and efficient predictions for the motion of the humans present in the scene is key to the development of effective motion planning algorithms for robots moving in promiscuous areas, where wrong planning decisions could…

Deciding how to act in partially observable environments remains an active area of research. Identifying good sequences of decisions is particularly challenging when good control performance requires planning multiple steps into the future…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-17 Ruijie He , Emma Brunskill , Nicholas Roy

Given a visual history, multiple future outcomes for a video scene are equally probable, in other words, the distribution of future outcomes has multiple modes. Multimodality is notoriously hard to handle by standard regressors or…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-05-08 Katerina Fragkiadaki , Jonathan Huang , Alex Alemi , Sudheendra Vijayanarasimhan , Susanna Ricco , Rahul Sukthankar

Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Benjamin Turtel , Paul Wilczewski , Kris Skotheim

This paper proposes an analytical framework for modelling resource contention in multi-robot systems, where the travel times and task durations are uncertain. It uses several approximation methods to quickly and accurately calculate the…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2020-03-17 Andrew W. Palmer , Andrew J. Hill , Steven J. Scheding

We consider robustness to distribution shifts in the context of diagnostic models in healthcare, where the prediction target $Y$, e.g., the presence of a disease, is causally upstream of the observations $X$, e.g., a biomarker. Distribution…

Trajectory forecasting has become a popular deep learning task due to its relevance for scenario simulation for autonomous driving. Specifically, trajectory forecasting predicts the trajectory of a short-horizon future for specific human…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Laura Zheng , Hamidreza Yaghoubi Araghi , Tony Wu , Sandeep Thalapanane , Tianyi Zhou , Ming C. Lin

As robots across domains start collaborating with humans in shared environments, algorithms that enable them to reason over human intent are important to achieve safe interplay. In our work, we study human intent through the problem of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-14 Ingrid Navarro , Jean Oh

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative models in the text-to-image domain. This paper studies their application as observation-to-action models for imitating human behaviour in sequential environments. Human behaviour is…

Rapid technological innovation threatens to leave much of the global workforce behind. Today's economy juxtaposes white-hot demand for skilled labor against stagnant employment prospects for workers unprepared to participate in a digital…

Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Petraq Nako , Adam Jatowt

Motion forecasts of road users (i.e., agents) vary in complexity depending on the number of agents, scene constraints, and interactions. In particular, the output space of joint trajectory distributions grows exponentially with the number…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Royden Wagner , Omer Sahin Tas , Felix Hauser , Marlon Steiner , Dominik Strutz , Abhishek Vivekanandan , Jaime Villa , Yinzhe Shen , Carlos Fernandez , Christoph Stiller

Event management in sensor networks is a multidisciplinary field involving several steps across the processing chain. In this paper, we discuss the major steps that should be performed in real- or near real-time event handling including…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2018-03-16 Vassilis Papataxiarhis , Stathes Hadjiefthymiades

Diffusion models have shown promise in forecasting future data from multivariate time series. However, few existing methods account for recurring structures, or patterns, that appear within the data. We present Pattern-Guided Diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Vivian Lin , Kuk Jin Jang , Wenwen Si , Insup Lee

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-08-03 Edsel A. Peña

We consider optimal decision-making problems in an uncertain environment. In particular, we consider the case in which the distribution of the input is unknown, yet there is abundant historical data drawn from the distribution. In this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-03 Zizhuo Wang , Peter Glynn , Yinyu Ye

The task of action-driven human motion prediction aims to forecast future human motion based on the observed sequence while respecting the given action label. It requires modeling not only the stochasticity within human motion but the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Chunzhi Gu , Chao Zhang , Shigeru Kuriyama

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-02-27 Takeshi Kurashima , Tim Althoff , Jure Leskovec

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Sean McGrath , Parth Mehta , Alexandra Zytek , Isaac Lage , Himabindu Lakkaraju