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Related papers: A Bivariate DAR($1$) model for ordinal time series

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Ordinal regression (OR, also called ordinal classification) is classification of ordinal data, in which the underlying target variable is categorical and considered to have a natural ordinal relation for the underlying explanatory variable.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Ryoya Yamasaki

This paper introduces a novel approach, the bivariate generalized autoregressive (BGAR) model, for modeling and forecasting bivariate time series data. The BGAR model generalizes the bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) models by allowing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Tatiane Fontana Ribeiro , Airlane P. Alencar , Fábio M. Bayer

In this paper we consider the problem of a measure that allows us to describe the spatial and temporal dependence structure of multivariate time series with innovations having infinite variance. By using recent results obtained in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-07 Aleksandra Grzesiek , Marek Teuerle , Agnieszka Wyłomańska

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become a staple in the analysis of multivariate time series and are formulated in the time domain as difference equations, with an implied covariance structure. In many contexts, it is desirable to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-04 Scott H. Holan , Tucker S. McElroy , Guohui Wu

In this article, we introduce and study a one sided tempered stable first order autoregressive model called TAR(1). Under the assumption of stationarity of the model, the marginal probability density function of the error term is found. It…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-30 Niharika Bhootna , Arun Kumar

This paper presents a framework for binary autoregressive time series in which each observation is a Bernoulli variable whose success probability evolves with past outcomes and probabilities, in the spirit of GARCH-type dynamics,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-17 Anna Bykhovskaya , Nour Meddahi

A class of multivariate periodic autoregressive models is proposed where coupling between time series is achieved through linear mean functions. Various response distributions with quadratic mean-variance relationships fit into the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Johannes Bracher , Leonhard Held

An extension of the RINAR(1) process for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model RINAR(p) investigated here is a direct and natural extension of the real AR(p) model. Compared to classical INAR(p)…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-11 M. Kachour

In this paper, a new bivariate random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive process based on modified negative binomial operator with dependent innovations is proposed. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this model are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-30 Yixuan Fan , Dehui Wang

In this paper, we discuss some theoretical results and properties of a discrete version of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. We present a proof of the unimodality of this model. Moreover, results on moments, quantile function, reliability…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-08 Filidor Vilca , Roberto Vila , Helton Saulo , Luis Sánchez , Jeremias Leão

The first-order binomial autoregressive (BAR(1)) model is the most frequently used tool to analyze the bounded count time series. The BAR(1) model is stationary and assumes process parameters to remain constant throughout the time period,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Danshu Sheng , Chang Liu , Yao Kang

Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Sven Pappert

We present a new method for causal discovery in linear structural vector autoregressive models. We adapt an idea designed for independent observations to the case of time series while retaining its favorable properties, i.e., explicit error…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Christoph Schultheiss , Markus Ulmer , Peter Bühlmann

In this paper we analyze the product of bi-dimensional VAR(1) model components. For the introduced time series we derive general formulas for the autocovariance function and study its properties for different cases of cross-dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-07 Joanna Janczura , Andrzej Puć , Łukasz Bielak , Agnieszka Wyłomańska

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-02 Yayi Yan , Jiti Gao , Bin Peng

In this paper, a new approach to bivariate modeling of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models is proposed. Specifically, we consider the joint modeling of durations and the number of transactions made during the spell. The…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-27 Helton Saulo , Suvra Pal , Roberto Vila

This article introduces a general class of heavy-tailed autoregressions for modeling integer-valued time series with outliers. The proposed specification is based on a heavy-tailed mixture of negative binomial distributions that features an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-09 Paolo Gorgi

In the copula-based approach to univariate time series modeling, the finite dimensional temporal dependence of a stationary time series is captured by a copula. Recent studies investigate how copula-based time series models can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Sven Pappert , Harry Joe

We propose a new variational Bayes estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior, and is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-23 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Michael Stanley Smith

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 K. Triantafyllopoulos