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Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

This study addresses the critical challenge of hallucination mitigation in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) for Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks through a Split Conformal Prediction (SCP) framework. While LVLMs excel in multi-modal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Yuanchang Ye , Weiyan Wen

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in critical applications. Conformal Prediction (CP) addresses this by calibrating error rates on held-out data to provide statistically valid confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Nathan Hittesdorf , Marco Salzetta , Lu Cheng

We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Daniel Schweizer , Peter Kuhn , Jayant Sharma , Shivali Dubey , Malte von Ramin , Christoph Brockt-Haßauer

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Large language models (LLMs) are prone to generating factually incorrect outputs. Recent work has applied conformal prediction to provide uncertainty estimates and statistical guarantees for the factuality of LLM generations. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Dzianis Piatrashyn , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Farbod Siahkali , Ashwin Verma , Vijay Gupta

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

This study introduces a significance testing-enhanced conformal prediction (CP) framework to improve trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs) in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). While LLMs have been increasingly deployed in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Yuanchang Ye

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Harit Vishwakarma , Alan Mishler , Thomas Cook , Niccolò Dalmasso , Natraj Raman , Sumitra Ganesh

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage, assuming exchangeable data. However, real-world scenarios often involve distribution shifts that violate exchangeability, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Yuheng Lai , Garvesh Raskutti

Object counting models suffer when deployed across domains with differing density variety, since density shifts are inherently task-relevant and violate standard domain adaptation assumptions. To address this, we propose a theoretical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Zhuonan Liang , Dongnan Liu , Jianan Fan , Yaxuan Song , Qiang Qu , Runnan Chen , Yu Yao , Peng Fu , Weidong Cai

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Sina Tayebati , Divake Kumar , Nastaran Darabi , Dinithi Jayasuriya , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

Existing calibration algorithms address the problem of covariate shift via unsupervised domain adaptation. However, these methods suffer from the following limitations: 1) they require unlabeled data from the target domain, which may not be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Yunye Gong , Xiao Lin , Yi Yao , Thomas G. Dietterich , Ajay Divakaran , Melinda Gervasio
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