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In this work, we explore uncertainty estimation as a proxy for correctness in LLM-generated code. To this end, we adapt two state-of-the-art techniques from natural language generation -- one based on entropy and another on mutual…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Arindam Sharma , Cristina David

Despite their impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit unwanted uncertainty, a phenomenon where a model changes a previously correct answer into an incorrect one when re-prompted. This behavior undermines trust and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Tiasa Singha Roy , Ayush Rajesh Jhaveri , Ilias Triantafyllopoulos

We study the feasibility of identifying epistemic uncertainty (reflecting a lack of knowledge), as opposed to aleatoric uncertainty (reflecting entropy in the underlying distribution), in the outputs of large language models (LLMs) over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Gustaf Ahdritz , Tian Qin , Nikhil Vyas , Boaz Barak , Benjamin L. Edelman

In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Sophia Hager , Simon Zeng , Nicholas Andrews

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promising results in language generation and instruction following but frequently "hallucinate", making their outputs less reliable. Despite Uncertainty Quantification's (UQ) potential solutions,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Jinhao Duan , Hao Cheng , Shiqi Wang , Alex Zavalny , Chenan Wang , Renjing Xu , Bhavya Kailkhura , Kaidi Xu

Large language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant breakthroughs across diverse domains; however, they can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs. For responsible LLM application, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Qihao Wen , Jiahao Wang , Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Roi Cohen , Omri Fahn , Gerard de Melo

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in various natural language generation (NLG) tasks. Previous studies suggest that LLMs' generation process involves uncertainty. However, existing approaches to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Yu-Hsiang Wang , Andrew Bai , Che-Ping Tsai , Cho-Jui Hsieh

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucination, particularly in long-form generations. A promising direction to mitigate hallucination is to teach LLMs to express uncertainty explicitly when they lack sufficient knowledge. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Ruihan Yang , Caiqi Zhang , Zhisong Zhang , Xinting Huang , Dong Yu , Nigel Collier , Deqing Yang

Uncertainty quantification has emerged as an effective approach to closed-book hallucination detection for LLMs, but existing methods are largely designed for short-form outputs and do not generalize well to long-form generation. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan , Viren Bajaj , David Skarbrevik

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate, whereby they generate plausible but inaccurate text. This phenomenon poses significant risks in critical applications, such as medicine or law, necessitating robust hallucination…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Benedict Aaron Tjandra , Muhammed Razzak , Jannik Kossen , Kunal Handa , Yarin Gal

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic interpretation.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Haoyi Song , Ruihan Ji , Naichen Shi , Fan Lai , Raed Al Kontar

We analyze how large language models (LLMs) represent out-of-context words, investigating their reliance on the given context to capture their semantics. Our likelihood-guided text perturbations reveal a correlation between token likelihood…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-03-16 Valeria Ruscio , Valentino Maiorca , Fabrizio Silvestri

Concerns regarding the propensity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to produce inaccurate outputs, also known as hallucinations, have escalated. Detecting them is vital for ensuring the reliability of applications relying on LLM-generated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Ernesto Quevedo , Jorge Yero , Rachel Koerner , Pablo Rivas , Tomas Cerny

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Stef van Buuren

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Eric Bigelow , Ari Holtzman , Hidenori Tanaka , Tomer Ullman

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges…

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