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We propose a time-adaptive predictor/multi-corrector method to solve hyperbolic partial differential equations, based on the generalized-$\alpha$ scheme that provides user-control on the numerical dissipation and second-order accuracy in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-11 Nicolas A. Labanda , Pouria Behnoudfar , Victor M. Calo

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Conformal prediction quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by augmenting point predictions with valid prediction sets. For complex scenarios involving multiple trials, models, or data sources, conformal prediction sets can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Gina Wong , Drew Prinster , Suchi Saria , Rama Chellappa , Anqi Liu

We present a conformal prediction method for time series using the Transformer architecture to capture long-memory and long-range dependencies. Specifically, we use the Transformer decoder as a conditional quantile estimator to predict the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Junghwan Lee , Chen Xu , Yao Xie

We propose a new inference framework called localized conformal prediction. It generalizes the framework of conformal prediction by offering a single-test-sample adaptive construction that emphasizes a local region around this test sample,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Leying Guan

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

Achieving valid conditional coverage in conformal prediction is challenging due to the theoretical difficulty of satisfying pointwise constraints in finite samples. Building upon the characterization of conditional coverage through marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Yajie Bao , Chuchen Zhang , Zhaojun Wang , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Daohong Tu , Kay Giesecke

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-10 Matthew Cleaveland , Insup Lee , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

Scenario optimization and conformal prediction share a common goal, that is, turning finite samples into safety margins. Yet, different terminology often obscures the connection between their respective guarantees. This paper revisits that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-23 Giuseppe C. Calafiore

Reliable confidence measures of metrics derived from medical imaging reconstruction pipelines would improve the standard of decision-making in many clinical workflows. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a robust framework for producing…

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Quantifying a model's predictive uncertainty is essential for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. We consider quantifying such uncertainty for multi-object detection. In particular, we leverage conformal prediction to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Alexander Timans , Christoph-Nikolas Straehle , Kaspar Sakmann , Eric Nalisnick

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

We propose a novel two-stage framework for sensor depth enhancement, called Perfecting Depth. This framework leverages the stochastic nature of diffusion models to automatically detect unreliable depth regions while preserving geometric…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Jinyoung Jun , Lei Chu , Jiahao Li , Yan Lu , Chang-Su Kim

Building on top of a regression model, Conformal Prediction methods produce distribution free prediction sets, requiring only i.i.d. data. While R packages implementing such methods for the univariate response framework have been developed,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-30 Paolo Vergottini , Matteo Fontana , Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Aldo Solari , Simone Vantini

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-04 John C. Duchi

In this paper, we have studied a decomposition method for solving a class of nonconvex two-stage stochastic programs, where both the objective and constraints of the second-stage problem are nonlinearly parameterized by the first-stage…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-16 Hanyang Li , Ying Cui