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Supporting model interpretability for complex phenomena where annotators can legitimately disagree, such as emotion recognition, is a challenging machine learning task. In this work, we show that explicitly quantifying the uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-08 Asma Ghandeharioun , Brian Eoff , Brendan Jou , Rosalind W. Picard

We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Lisa Wimmer , Thomas Nagler , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper introduces a qualitative measure of ambiguity and analyses its relationship with other measures of uncertainty. Probability measures relative likelihoods, while ambiguity measures vagueness surrounding those judgments. Ambiguity…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Michael S. K. M. Wong , Z. W. Wang

Safe artificial intelligence for perception tasks remains a major challenge, partly due to the lack of data with high-quality labels. Annotations themselves are subject to aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, which is typically ignored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Jonathan Klees , Tobias Riedlinger , Peter Stehr , Bennet Böddecker , Daniel Kondermann , Matthias Rottmann

Clinical dataset labels are rarely certain as annotators disagree and confidence is not uniform across cases. Typical aggregation procedures, such as majority voting, obscure this variability. In simple experiments on medical imaging…

This position paper argues that annotation disagreement in Natural Language Inference (NLI) is not mere noise but often reflects meaningful variation, especially when triggered by ambiguity in the premise or hypothesis. While underspecified…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Chathuri Jayaweera , Bonnie J. Dorr

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Uncertainty in machine learning models is a timely and vast field of research. In supervised learning, uncertainty can already occur in the first stage of the training process, the annotation phase. This scenario is particularly evident…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Katharina Hechinger , Christoph Koller , Xiao Xiang Zhu , Göran Kauermann

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Lisa Wimmer , Eyke Hüllermeier , Thomas Nagler

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Most crowdsourcing learning methods treat disagreement between annotators as noisy labelings while inter-disagreement among experts is often a good indicator for the ambiguity and uncertainty that is inherent in natural language. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-01-05 Xiaolei Lu

We introduce a method to measure uncertainty in large language models. For tasks like question answering, it is essential to know when we can trust the natural language outputs of foundation models. We show that measuring uncertainty in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Lorenz Kuhn , Yarin Gal , Sebastian Farquhar

High-quality data is necessary for modern machine learning. However, the acquisition of such data is difficult due to noisy and ambiguous annotations of humans. The aggregation of such annotations to determine the label of an image leads to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Lars Schmarje , Vasco Grossmann , Claudius Zelenka , Sabine Dippel , Rainer Kiko , Mariusz Oszust , Matti Pastell , Jenny Stracke , Anna Valros , Nina Volkmann , Reinhard Koch

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Qingyang Wu , He Li , Lexin Li , Zhou Yu

We study the understanding of deep neural networks from the scope in which they are trained on. While the accuracy of these models is usually impressive on the aggregate level, they still make mistakes, sometimes on cases that appear to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Roozbeh Yousefzadeh

Selecting an effective training signal for machine learning tasks is difficult: expert annotations are expensive, and crowd-sourced annotations may not be reliable. Recent work has demonstrated that learning from a distribution over labels…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Dustin Wright , Isabelle Augenstein

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Quantitative characterizations and estimations of uncertainty are of fundamental importance in optimization and decision-making processes. Herein, we propose intuitive scores, which we call certainty and doubt, that can be used in both a…

Many machine learning tasks involve inherent subjectivity, where annotators naturally provide varied labels. Standard practice collapses these label distributions into single labels, aggregating diverse human judgments into point estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Agamdeep Singh , Ashish Tiwari , Hosein Hasanbeig , Priyanshu Gupta

Entropy is a measure of heterogeneity widely used in applied sciences, often when data are collected over space. Recently, a number of approaches has been proposed to include spatial information in entropy. The aim of entropy is to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Linda Altieri , Daniela Cocchi , Giulia Roli
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