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Despite their importance for assessing reliability of predictions, uncertainty quantification (UQ) measures for machine learning models have only recently begun to be rigorously characterized. One prominent issue is the curse of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-27 Liam Hodgkinson , Chris van der Heide , Fred Roosta , Michael W. Mahoney

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Yu-Neng Chuang , Leisheng Yu , Guanchu Wang , Lizhe Zhang , Zirui Liu , Xuanting Cai , Yang Sui , Vladimir Braverman , Xia Hu

Modern Large Language Models (LLMs) often require external tools, such as machine learning classifiers or knowledge retrieval systems, to provide accurate answers in domains where their pre-trained knowledge is insufficient. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Panagiotis Lymperopoulos , Vasanth Sarathy

This paper provides a tutorial about uncertainty quantification (UQ) for those who have no background but are interested in learning more in this area. It exploits many very simple examples, which are understandable to undergraduates, to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Nan Chen , Stephen Wiggins , Marios Andreou

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are integrated into safety-critical applications involving sequential decision-making in the real world, it is essential to know when to trust LLM decisions. Existing LLM Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Jinhao Duan , James Diffenderfer , Sandeep Madireddy , Tianlong Chen , Bhavya Kailkhura , Kaidi Xu

Assessing response quality to instructions in language models is vital but challenging due to the complexity of human language across different contexts. This complexity often results in ambiguous or inconsistent interpretations, making…

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for natural language generation in healthcare, but risk hallucinating factually incorrect information. Deploying LLMs for medical question answering necessitates reliable uncertainty estimation (UE)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Jiaxin Wu , Yizhou Yu , Hong-Yu Zhou

A model's ability to express its own predictive uncertainty is an essential attribute for maintaining clinical user confidence as computational biomarkers are deployed into real-world medical settings. In the domain of cancer digital…

Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Daniel Ries , Joshua Michalenko , Tyler Ganter , Rashad Imad-Fayez Baiyasi , Jason Adams

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong generative capabilities but remain vulnerable to confabulations, fluent yet unreliable outputs that vary arbitrarily even under identical prompts. Leveraging a quantum tensor network based…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Pragatheeswaran Vipulanandan , Kamal Premaratne , Dilip Sarkar

Large language models (LLMs) are often confidently wrong, making reliable uncertainty estimation (UE) essential. Output-based heuristics are cheap but brittle, while probing internal representations is effective yet high-dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Zvi N. Badash , Yonatan Belinkov , Moti Freiman

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Leading uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Lukas Aichberger , Kajetan Schweighofer , Sepp Hochreiter

Detecting hallucinations in large language models (LLMs) remains a fundamental challenge for their trustworthy deployment. Going beyond basic uncertainty-driven hallucination detection frameworks, we propose a simple yet powerful method…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Rui Wang , Zeming Wei , Guanzhang Yue , Meng Sun

The remarkable performance of large language models (LLMs) in content generation, coding, and common-sense reasoning has spurred widespread integration into many facets of society. However, integration of LLMs raises valid questions on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-03 Ola Shorinwa , Zhiting Mei , Justin Lidard , Allen Z. Ren , Anirudha Majumdar

Treating uncertainties in models is essential in many fields of science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex and computationally costly numerical models necessitates a combination of efficient model solvers, advanced…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-04-28 Linus Seelinger , Anne Reinarz , Jean Benezech , Mikkel Bue Lykkegaard , Lorenzo Tamellini , Robert Scheichl

This paper outlines a methodology for Bayesian multimodel uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation and presents an investigation into the effect of prior probabilities on the resulting uncertainties. The UQ methodology is adapted…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-04 Jiaxin Zhang , Michael D. Shields

Complex multi-step reasoning tasks, such as solving mathematical problems, remain challenging for large language models (LLMs). While outcome supervision is commonly used, process supervision via process reward models (PRMs) provides…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Zihuiwen Ye , Luckeciano Carvalho Melo , Younesse Kaddar , Phil Blunsom , Sam Staton , Yarin Gal

With increasing deployment of machine learning systems in various real-world tasks, there is a greater need for accurate quantification of predictive uncertainty. While the common goal in uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Youngseog Chung , Ian Char , Han Guo , Jeff Schneider , Willie Neiswanger

Real-world settings where language models (LMs) are deployed -- in domains spanning healthcare, finance, and other forms of knowledge work -- require models to grapple with incomplete information and reason under uncertainty. Yet most LM…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Alana Renda , Jillian Ross , Michael Cafarella , Jacob Andreas

The Large language models (LLMs) have showcased superior capabilities in sophisticated tasks across various domains, stemming from basic question-answer (QA), they are nowadays used as decision assistants or explainers for unfamiliar…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Longchao Da , Tiejin Chen , Lu Cheng , Hua Wei
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