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We propose information-directed sampling -- a new approach to online optimization problems in which a decision-maker must balance between exploration and exploitation while learning from partial feedback. Each action is sampled in a manner…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-10 Daniel Russo , Benjamin Van Roy

Estimation of the $\phi$-divergence between two unknown probability distributions using empirical data is a fundamental problem in information theory and statistical learning. We consider a multi-variate generalization of the data dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Fengqiao Luo , Sanjay Mehrotra

We consider the problem of sequentially making decisions that are rewarded by "successes" and "failures" which can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on a partially controllable vector of attributes for each instance.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-18 Yingfei Wang , Chu Wang , Warren Powell

Data-driven decision making plays an important role even in high stakes settings like medicine and public policy. Learning optimal policies from observed data requires a careful formulation of the utility function whose expected value is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-29 Eli Ben-Michael , Kosuke Imai , Zhichao Jiang

Analysis of longitudinal randomised controlled trials is frequently complicated because patients deviate from the protocol. Where such deviations are relevant for the estimand, we are typically required to make an untestable assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Suzie Cro , James R Carpenter , Michael G Kenward

The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation of extreme eventualities in decision-making, is a well-known cognitive bias, and is generally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In this work, we present the first…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-01-31 Ardavan S. Nobandegani , Kevin da Silva Castanheira , A. Ross Otto , Thomas R. Shultz

Garcia-Donato et al. (2025) present a methodology for handling missing data in a model selection problem using an objective Bayesian approach. The current comment discusses an alternative, existing objective Bayesian method for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Joris Mulder

Unsupervised learning from continuous visual streams is a challenging problem that cannot be naturally and efficiently managed in the classic batch-mode setting of computation. The information stream must be carefully processed accordingly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Matteo Tiezzi , Stefano Melacci , Alessandro Betti , Marco Maggini , Marco Gori

As one of the most powerful tools for examining the association between functional covariates and a response, the functional regression model has been widely adopted in various interdisciplinary studies. Usually, a limited number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-07 Hanteng Ma , Ziliang Shen , Xingdong Feng , Xin Liu

The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Daniel Chicharro , Michel Besserve , Stefano Panzeri

Biases with respect to socially-salient attributes of individuals have been well documented in evaluation processes used in settings such as admissions and hiring. We view such an evaluation process as a transformation of a distribution of…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-10-27 L. Elisa Celis , Amit Kumar , Anay Mehrotra , Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

How should we evaluate the effect of a policy on the likelihood of an undesirable event, such as conflict? The significance test has three limitations. First, relying on statistical significance misses the fact that uncertainty is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-03 Akisato Suzuki

Measures of dependence among variables, and measures of information content and shared information have become valuable tools of multi-variable data analysis. Information measures, like marginal entropies, mutual and multi-information, have…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-08-02 David J. Galas , Nikita A. Sakhanenko , Benjamin Keller

Traditional statistical theory assumes that the analysis to be performed on a given data set is selected independently of the data themselves. This assumption breaks downs when data are re-used across analyses and the analysis to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-06 Adam Smith

This arXiv report provides a short introduction to the information-theoretic measure proposed by Chen and Golan in 2016 for analyzing machine- and human-centric processes in data intelligence workflows. This introduction was compiled based…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Min Chen

It is well known that the minimal superhedging price of a contingent claim is too high for practical use. In a continuous-time model uncertainty framework, we consider a relaxed hedging criterion based on acceptable shortfall risks.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-03-07 Ludovic Tangpi

Evidence-based decision-making entails collecting (costly) observations about an underlying phenomenon of interest, and subsequently committing to an (informed) decision on the basis of accumulated evidence. In this setting, active sensing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-26 Daniel Jarrett , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper deals with the problem of accurately determining guaranteed suboptimal values of an unknown cost function on the basis of noisy measurements. We consider a set-valued variant to regression where, instead of finding a best…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Jaap Eising , Jorge Cortes

Computational level explanations based on optimal feedback control with signal-dependent noise have been able to account for a vast array of phenomena in human sensorimotor behavior. However, commonly a cost function needs to be assumed for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Matthias Schultheis , Dominik Straub , Constantin A. Rothkopf

Information theoretic measures (entropies, entropy rates, mutual information) are nowadays commonly used in statistical signal processing for real-world data analysis. The present work proposes the use of Auto Mutual Information (Mutual…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-07-24 C Granero-Belinchón , S. Roux , P. Abry , N. Garnier
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