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We consider statistical inference for a class of continuous semimartingale regression models based on high-frequency observations subject to contamination by finite-activity jumps and spike noise. By employing density-power weighting and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Shoichi Eguchi , Hiroki Masuda

Max-stable distributions and processes are important models for extreme events and the assessment of tail risks. The full, multivariate likelihood of a parametric max-stable distribution is complicated and only recent advances enable its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-08 Clement Dombry , Sebastian Engelke , Marco Oesting

Robust statistics traditionally focuses on outliers, or perturbations in total variation distance. However, a dataset could be corrupted in many other ways, such as systematic measurement errors and missing covariates. We generalize the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Banghua Zhu , Jiantao Jiao , Jacob Steinhardt

There is a propensity for an extreme value analyses to be conducted as a consequence of the occurrence of a large flooding event. This timing of the analysis introduces bias and poor coverage probabilities into the associated risk…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-02 Anna Maria Barlow , Chris Sherlock , Jonathan Tawn

Linear regression with normally distributed errors - including particular cases such as ANOVA, Student's t-test or location-scale inference - is a widely used statistical procedure. In this case the ordinary least squares estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-18 Alain Desgagné

Hazard event sets, a collection of synthetic extreme events over a given period, are important for catastrophe modelling. This paper addresses the issue of generating event sets of extreme river flow for northern England and southern…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-30 Christian Rohrbeck , Daniel Cooley

We consider the general problem of estimating probabilities which arise as a union of dependent events. We propose a flexible series of estimators for such probabilities, and describe variance reduction schemes applied to the proposed…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-10 Lars Nørvang Andersen , Patrick J. Laub , Leonardo Rojas-Nandayapa

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Lorenz Vaitl , Ludwig Winkler , Lorenz Richter , Pan Kessel

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-06 Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Benjamin A. Shaby

We benchmark the robustness of maximum likelihood based uncertainty estimation methods to outliers in training data for regression tasks. Outliers or noisy labels in training data results in degraded performances as well as incorrect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Deebul S. Nair , Nico Hochgeschwender , Miguel A. Olivares-Mendez

We consider (robust) inference in the context of a factor model for tensor-valued sequences. We study the consistency of the estimated common factors and loadings space when using estimators based on minimising quadratic loss functions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-29 Matteo Barigozzi , Yong He , Lingxiao Li , Lorenzo Trapani

We describe a method to computationally estimate the probability density function of a univariate random variable by applying the maximum entropy principle with some local conditions given by Gaussian functions. The estimation errors and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-21 Mihail-Ioan Pop

Heavy-tailed distributions are widely used in robust mixture modelling due to possessing thick tails. As a computationally tractable subclass of the stable distributions, sub-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable distribution received much interest in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-25 Mahdi Teimouri , Saeid Rezakhah , Adel Mohammdpour

In most risk assessment studies, it is important to accurately capture the entire distribution of the multivariate random vector of interest from low to high values. For example, in climate sciences, low precipitation events may lead to…

Relative error estimation has been recently used in regression analysis. A crucial issue of the existing relative error estimation procedures is that they are sensitive to outliers. To address this issue, we employ the $\gamma$-likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-17 Kei Hirose , Hiroki Masuda

Generalized Linear Models are routinely used in data analysis. The classical procedures for estimation are based on Maximum Likelihood and it is well known that the presence of outliers can have a large impact on this estimator. Robust…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-02 Marina Valdora , Claudio Agostinelli , Victor J. Yohai

Robust estimation under multivariate normal (MVN) mixture model is always a computational challenge. A recently proposed maximum pseudo \b{eta}-likelihood estimator aims to estimate the unknown parameters of a MVN mixture model in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-14 Soumya Chakraborty , Ayanendranath Basu , Abhik Ghosh

This study proposes a robust estimator for stochastic frontier models by integrating the idea of Basu et al. [1998, Biometrika 85, 549-559] into such models. We verify that the suggested estimator is strongly consistent and asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-29 Junmo Song , Dong-hyun Oh , Jiwon Kang

The class of $\alpha$-stable distributions with a wide range of applications in economics, telecommunications, biology, applied, and theoretical physics. This is due to the fact that it possesses both the skewness and heavy tails. Since…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-13 Mahdi Teimouri

We provide a new computationally-efficient class of estimators for risk minimization. We show that these estimators are robust for general statistical models: in the classical Huber epsilon-contamination model and in heavy-tailed settings.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-23 Adarsh Prasad , Arun Sai Suggala , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Pradeep Ravikumar