Related papers: HOMC: A MATLAB Package for Higher Order Markov Cha…
A survey of a variety of computational procedures for finding the mean first passage times in Markov chains is presented. The author recently developed a new accurate computational technique, an Extended GTH Procedure, Hunter (Special…
Users form information trails as they browse the web, checkin with a geolocation, rate items, or consume media. A common problem is to predict what a user might do next for the purposes of guidance, recommendation, or prefetching.…
Several natural phenomena exhibit long-range conditional dependencies. High-order mixture transition distribution (MTD) are parsimonious non-parametric models to study these phenomena. An MTD is a Markov chain in which the transition…
In this paper, we introduce Max Markov Chain (MMC), a novel representation for a useful subset of High-order Markov Chains (HMCs) with sparse correlations among the states. MMC is parsimony while retaining the expressiveness of HMCs. Even…
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…
Markov chains for probability distributions related to matrix product states and 1D Hamiltonians are introduced. With appropriate 'inverse temperature' schedules, these chains can be combined into a random approximation scheme for ground…
Matrices with hierarchical low-rank structure, including HODLR and HSS matrices, constitute a versatile tool to develop fast algorithms for addressing large-scale problems. While existing software packages for such matrices often focus on…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient and effective means of sampling posterior distributions on Euclidean space, which has been extended to manifolds with boundary. However, some applications require an extension to more general…
We develop two models for Bayesian estimation and selection in high-order, discrete-state Markov chains. Both are based on the mixture transition distribution, which constructs a transition probability tensor with additive mixing of…
Queueing networks and Markov chains are widely used for conducting performance and reliability studies. In this paper we describe the queueing package, a free software package for queueing networks and Markov chain analysis for GNU Octave.…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely regarded as one of the most important algorithms of the 20th century. Its guarantees of asymptotic convergence, stability, and estimator-variance bounds using only unnormalized probability functions…
Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically.…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for drawing samples from smooth probability densities over continuous spaces. We study the variant most widely used in practice, Metropolized…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain algorithm for sampling from a high-dimensional distribution with density $e^{-f(x)}$, given access to the gradient of $f$. A particular case of interest is that of a $d$-dimensional Gaussian…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are indispensable when sampling from a complex, high-dimensional distribution by a conventional method is intractable. Even though MCMC is a powerful tool, it is also hard to control and tune in…
HOTTBOX is a Python library for exploratory analysis and visualisation of multi-dimensional arrays of data, also known as tensors. The library includes methods ranging from standard multi-way operations and data manipulation through to…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…