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Epidemic forecasting is the key to effective control of epidemic transmission and helps the world mitigate the crisis that threatens public health. To better understand the transmission and evolution of epidemics, we propose EpiGNN, a graph…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-25 Feng Xie , Zhong Zhang , Liang Li , Bin Zhou , Yusong Tan

We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-03-11 Joel C Miller , Istvan Z Kiss

Graph neural networks (GNNs) work remarkably well in semi-supervised node regression, yet a rigorous theory explaining when and why they succeed remains lacking. To address this gap, we study an aggregate-and-readout model that encompasses…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Juntong Chen , Claire Donnat , Olga Klopp , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

We consider a standard \textit{susceptible-infected-susceptible} (SIS) model to study behaviors of steady states of epidemic spreading in small-world networks. Using analytical methods and large scale simulations, we recover the usual…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Xin-Jian Xu , Zhi-Xi Wu , Yong Chen , Ying-Hai Wang

Graph-based neural network models are gaining traction in the field of representation learning due to their ability to uncover latent topological relationships between entities that are otherwise challenging to identify. These models have…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-25 Aryan Singh , Pepijn Van de Ven , Ciarán Eising , Patrick Denny

Epidemic prediction is a fundamental task for epidemic control and prevention. Many mechanistic models and deep learning models are built for this task. However, most mechanistic models have difficulty estimating the time/region-varying…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Qi Cao , Renhe Jiang , Chuang Yang , Zipei Fan , Xuan Song , Ryosuke Shibasaki

The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2011-10-24 Alex Skvortsov , Branko Ristic

The susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on complex networks can show metastability, resembling an endemic equilibrium. In a general setting, the metastable state may involve a large portion of the network, or it can be…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-03 Faryad Darabi Sahneh , Aram Vajdi , Caterina Scoglio

Human brains lie at the core of complex neurobiological systems, where the neurons, circuits, and subsystems interact in enigmatic ways. Understanding the structural and functional mechanisms of the brain has long been an intriguing pursuit…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-26 Hejie Cui , Wei Dai , Yanqiao Zhu , Xiaoxiao Li , Lifang He , Carl Yang

Finding the biomarkers associated with ASD is helpful for understanding the underlying roots of the disorder and can lead to earlier diagnosis and more targeted treatment. A promising approach to identify biomarkers is using Graph Neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-15 Xiaoxiao Li , Nicha C. Dvornek , Yuan Zhou , Juntang Zhuang , Pamela Ventola , James S. Duncan

Developing methods to analyse infection spread is an important step in the study of pandemic and containing them. The principal mode for geographical spreading of pandemics is the movement of population across regions. We are interested in…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-11-11 Sudeepini Darapu , Subrata Ghosh , Abhishek Senapati , Chittaranjan Hens , Santosh Nannuru

In random graph models, the degree distribution of an individual node should be distinguished from the (empirical) degree distribution of the graph that records the fractions of nodes with given degree. We introduce a general framework to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Siddharth Pal , Armand M. Makowski

The interdependence between nodes in graphs is key to improve class predictions on nodes and utilized in approaches like Label Propagation (LP) or in Graph Neural Networks (GNN). Nonetheless, uncertainty estimation for non-independent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-28 Maximilian Stadler , Bertrand Charpentier , Simon Geisler , Daniel Zügner , Stephan Günnemann

The identification of important nodes in complex networks is an area of exciting growth due to its applications across various disciplines like disease controlling, community finding, data mining, network system controlling, just to name a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Qiuyan Shang , Yong Deng , Kang Hao Cheong

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for prediction tasks like node classification or edge prediction have received increasing attention in recent machine learning from graphically structured data. However, a large quantity of labeled graphs is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-22 Yuexin Wu , Yichong Xu , Aarti Singh , Yiming Yang , Artur Dubrawski

Among various spatio-temporal prediction tasks, epidemic forecasting plays a critical role in public health management. Recent studies have demonstrated the strong potential of spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) in extracting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Yufan Zheng , Wei Jiang , Tong Chen , Alexander Zhou , Nguyen Quoc Viet Hung , Choujun Zhan , Hongzhi Yin

We propose a graph neural network (GNN)-based method to predict the distribution of penalties induced by outages in communication networks, where connections are protected by resources shared between working and backup paths. The GNN-based…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Krzysztof Rusek , Piotr Boryło , Piotr Jaglarz , Fabien Geyer , Albert Cabellos , Piotr Chołda

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful models that can manage complex data sources and their interconnection links. One of GNNs' main drawbacks is their lack of interpretability, which limits their application in sensitive fields. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Salvatore Calderaro , Domenico Amato , Giosuè Lo Bosco , Riccardo Rizzo , Filippo Vella

Graph data, such as chemical networks and social networks, may be deemed confidential/private because the data owner often spends lots of resources collecting the data or the data contains sensitive information, e.g., social relationships.…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Xinlei He , Jinyuan Jia , Michael Backes , Neil Zhenqiang Gong , Yang Zhang

In network epidemic models, controlling the spread of a disease often requires targeted interventions such as vaccinating high-risk individuals based on network structure. However, typical approaches assume complete knowledge of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-16 Anirudh Sridhar , Arnob Ghosh
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