Related papers: From Local Earthquake Nowcasting to Natural Time F…
We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…
Scalable kernel methods, including kernel ridge regression, often rely on low-rank matrix approximations using the Nystrom method, which involves selecting landmark points from large data sets. The existing approaches to selecting landmarks…
We introduce a Self-affine Asperity Model (SAM) for the seismicity that mimics the fault friction by means of two fractional Brownian profiles (fBm) that slide one over the other. An earthquake occurs when there is an overlap of the two…
Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of…
The traditional way of estimating the gravitational field from observed motions of test objects is based on the virial relation between their kinetic and potential energy. We find a more efficient method. It is based on the natural…
Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…
Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this relation and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls…
As Earth's climate changes, it is impacting disasters and extreme weather events across the planet. Record-breaking heat waves, drenching rainfalls, extreme wildfires, and widespread flooding during hurricanes are all becoming more frequent…
Gaussian processes have been successful in both supervised and unsupervised machine learning tasks, but their computational complexity has constrained practical applications. We introduce a new approximation for large-scale Gaussian…
The article discusses the possibilities of three-step early warning and short-term prediction of earthquakes based on the classical geological model of fault formation and a model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected…
The number of successes 'n' and the normalized measure of space-time alarm 'tau' are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. To evaluate better the…
Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the…
Due to the saturation of the body ($m_b$) and surface ($M_S$) earthquake magnitudes, the moment magnitude ($M_W$) is a more convenient parameter for representing earthquake energies. We use the HRVD data, including 18,569 earthquakes…
We introduce a new model for an earthquake fault system that is composed of non-interacting simple lattice models with different levels of damage denoted by $q$. The undamaged lattice models ($q=0$) have Gutenberg-Richter scaling with a…
Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
Coulomb-stress theory has been used for years in seismology to understand how earthquakes trigger each other. Whenever an earthquake occurs, the stress field changes, and places with positive increases are brought closer to failure.…
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…
This entry in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Springer present a summary of some of the concepts and calculational tools that have been developed in attempts to apply statistical physics approaches to seismology. We…
This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…