Related papers: The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine-Le…

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent,…

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in…

Satellite altimeter observations retrieved since 1993 show that the global mean sea level is rising at an unprecedented rate (3.4mm/year). With almost three decades of observations, we can now investigate the contributions of anthropogenic…

The growing adoption of machine learning (ML) in modelling atmospheric and oceanic processes offers a promising alternative to traditional numerical methods. It is essential to benchmark the performance of both ML and physics-informed ML…

Understanding how fast atmospheric variability shapes slow climate variability and sensitivity remains a central challenge in Earth-system science. Recent advances in machine-learned (ML) atmospheric models have demonstrated remarkable…

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to…

The sensitivity of the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere to surface temperature perturbations cannot be directly observed. The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and top-of-atmosphere radiation can be estimated…

Physics-based atmosphere-land models with prescribed sea surface temperature have notable successes but also biases in their ability to represent atmospheric variability compared to observations. Recently, AI emulators and hybrid models…

Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…

We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state given the prescribed sea surface temperatures and incoming solar…

Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…

The parameterization of moist convection contributes to uncertainty in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Machine learning (ML) can be used to learn new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output, but it…

Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern…

Sea surface height observations provided by satellite altimetry since 1993 show a rising rate (3.4 mm/year) for global mean sea level. While on average, sea level has risen 10 cm over the last 30 years, there is considerable regional…

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…

Current climate models often struggle with accuracy because they lack sufficient resolution, a limitation caused by computational constraints. This reduces the precision of weather forecasts and long-term climate predictions. To address…

Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General…

Land surface temperature (LST) is vital for land-atmosphere interactions and climate processes. Accurate LST retrieval remains challenging under heterogeneous land cover and extreme atmospheric conditions. Traditional split window (SW)…

Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…

Machine learning weather models trained on observed atmospheric conditions can outperform conventional physics-based models at short- to medium-range (1-14 day) forecast timescales. Here we take the machine learning weather model ACE2,…