Related papers: Representation and Integration by Parts Formulas f…
We prove simple general formulas for expectations of functions of a L\'evy process and its running extremum. Under additional conditions, we derive analytical formulas using the Fourier/Laplace inversion and Wiener-Hopf factorization, and…
A popular and flexible time series model for counts is the generalized integer autoregressive process of order $p$, GINAR($p$). These Markov processes are defined using thinning operators evaluated on past values of the process along with a…
Probabilistic inference is fundamentally hard, yet many tasks require optimization on top of inference, which is even harder. We present a new optimization-via-compilation strategy to scalably solve a certain class of such problems. In…
Interest rate market models, like the LIBOR market model, have the advantage that the basic model quantities are directly observable in financial markets. Inflation market models extend this approach to inflation markets, where zero-coupon…
Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes are widely used in financial modeling such as in the Heston model for the approximative pricing of financial derivatives. Moreover, CIR processes are mathematically interesting due to the irregular square…
We establish existence of Predictable Forward Performance Processes (PFPPs) in complete markets, which has been previously shown only in the binomial setting. Our market model can be a discrete-time or a continuous-time model, and the…
A general framework of Numerical Singular Integrals (NSI) method based on the Integration By Parts (IBP) has been developed for integrals involving singular and nearly singular integrands, or NSI-IBP. Through a general integration by parts…
Integration By Parts (IBP) is an important method for computing Feynman integrals. This work describes a formulation of the theory involving a set of differential equations in parameter space, and especially the definition and study of an…
We introduce affine Volterra processes, defined as solutions of certain stochastic convolution equations with affine coefficients. Classical affine diffusions constitute a special case, but affine Volterra processes are neither…
First-order probabilistic models combine representational power of first-order logic with graphical models. There is an ongoing effort to design lifted inference algorithms for first-order probabilistic models. We analyze lifted inference…
The binomial, the negative binomial, the Poisson, the compound Poisson and the Erlang distribution do all admit integral representations with respect to its (continuous) parameter. We use the Margulis-Russo type formulas for Bernoulli and…
We present ExpIris, a separation logic framework for the (amortized) expected cost analysis of probabilistic programs. ExpIris is based on Iris, parametric in the language and the cost model, and supports both imperative and functional…
Affine point processes are a class of simple point processes with self- and mutually-exciting properties, and they have found useful applications in several areas. In this paper, we obtain large-time asymptotic expansions in large…
Learning meaningful representations of data is an important aspect of machine learning and has recently been successfully applied to many domains like language understanding or computer vision. Instead of training a model for one specific…
We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) which are a standard model for probabilistic systems. We focus on qualitative properties for MDPs that can express that desired behaviors of the system arise almost-surely (with probability 1) or…
In this work we consider one-dimensional generalized affine processes under the paradigm of Knightian uncertainty (so-called non-linear generalized affine models). This extends and generalizes previous results in Fadina et al. (2019) and…
We present novel mixed-integer programming (MIP) formulations for optimization over nonconvex piecewise linear functions. We exploit recent advances in the systematic construction of MIP formulations to derive new formulations for…
Piecewise regression is a versatile approach used in various disciplines to approximate complex functions from limited, potentially noisy data points. In control, piecewise regression is, e.g., used to approximate the optimal control law of…
This article investigates parameter estimation of affine term structure models by means of the generalized method of moments. Exact moments of the affine latent process as well as of the yields are obtained by using results derived for…
This paper is devoted to parameter estimation for partially observed polynomial state space models. This class includes discretely observed affine or more generally polynomial Markov processes. The polynomial structure allows for the…