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In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-20 Zai-Ying Zhou

Fisher randomization tests for Neyman's null hypothesis of no average treatment effects are considered in a finite population setting associated with completely randomized experiments with more than two treatments. The consequences of using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-26 Peng Ding , Tirthankar Dasgupta

This work considers methods for imposing sparsity in Bayesian regression with applications in nonlinear system identification. We first review automatic relevance determination (ARD) and analytically demonstrate the need to additional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Samuel H. Rudy , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Randomization inference is a widely-used and appealing approach for analyzing treatment effects in randomized experiments, as it is finite-sample valid and does not require any distributional assumptions. However, naive application of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Xinran Li , Peizan Sheng , Zeyang Yu

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Ruanui Nicholson , Radoslav Vuchkov , Umberto Villa , Noemi Petra

In this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

Covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) procedures are frequently used in comparative studies to increase the covariate balance across treatment groups. However, because randomization inevitably uses the covariate information when forming…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Wei Ma , Yichen Qin , Yang Li , Feifang Hu

Our approach to Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis is designed to increase reproducibility of causal effect "discoveries" by: (i) using a Bayesian approach to inference; (ii) replacing the point null hypothesis with a region of practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-11 Linyi Zou , Teresa Fazia , Hui Guo , Carlo Berzuini

Randomized controlled trials typically assume that prognostic covariates are known and available at no cost. In practice, obtaining high-dimensional pretreatment data is costly, forcing a trade-off between covariate-adaptive precision and a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Kateryna Husar , Alexander Volfovsky

In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…

Computation · Statistics 2018-11-01 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson , Saptarshi Das , Paul Gelderblom

We consider the multi armed bandit problem in non-stationary environments. Based on the Bayesian method, we propose a variant of Thompson Sampling which can be used in both rested and restless bandit scenarios. Applying discounting to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-01 Vishnu Raj , Sheetal Kalyani

This work proposes ensemble Kalman randomized maximum likelihood estimation, a new derivative-free method for performing randomized maximum likelihood estimation, which is a method that can be used to generate approximate samples from…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Pavlos Stavrinides , Elizabeth Qian

Likelihood-free methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, are powerful tools for practical inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo variants of approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-26 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

The majority of response-adaptive randomisation (RAR) designs in the literature rely on efficacy data to guide dynamic patient allocation. However, their applicability becomes limited in settings where efficacy outcomes, such as survival,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Maria Vittoria Chiaruttini , Lukas Pin , Sofia S. Villar

We develop randomization-based tests for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of network interference. Leveraging the exposure mapping framework, we study a broad class of null hypotheses that represent various forms of constant…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-25 Julius Owusu

Maximizing statistical power in experimental design often involves imbalanced treatment allocation, but several challenges hinder its practical adoption: (1) the misconception that equal allocation always maximizes power, (2) when only…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Stef Baas , Lukas Pin , Sofía S. Villar , William F. Rosenberger

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filters, have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. However, in many…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-29 Luca Martino , Joaquin Miguez

The normalizing constant plays an important role in Bayesian computation, and there is a large literature on methods for computing or approximating normalizing constants that cannot be evaluated in closed form. When the normalizing constant…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-02 Yuling Yao , Collin Cademartori , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Preference feedback, in the form of pairwise comparisons rather than scalar scores, has seen increasing use in applications such as human-, laboratory-, and expert-in-the-loop design, as well as scientific discovery. We propose a Thompson…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-29 Joseph Lazzaro , Davide Buffelli , Da-shan Shiu , Sattar Vakili

Basket trials are increasingly used for the simultaneous evaluation of a new treatment in various patient subgroups under one overarching protocol. We propose a Bayesian approach to sample size determination in basket trials that permit…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-02 Haiyan Zheng , Michael J. Grayling , Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki , James M. S. Wason