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Machine learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have emerged as powerful tools for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with their competitive accuracy and computational efficiency. However, MLIPs are often observed to exhibit un-physical…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-02-24 Qianyu Zheng , Victor Fung

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu

Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (MLIPs) are becoming a central tool in simulation-based chemistry. However, like most deep learning models, MLIPs struggle to make accurate predictions on out-of-distribution data or when trained in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Dario Coscia , Pim de Haan , Max Welling

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Line Pouchard , Kristofer G. Reyes , Francis J. Alexander , Byung-Jun Yoon

Universal machine-learned interatomic potentials (U-MLIPs) have demonstrated effectiveness across diverse atomistic systems but often require fine-tuning for task-specific accuracy. We investigate the fine-tuning of two MACE-based…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-06-10 Xiaoqing Liu , Kehan Zeng , Yangshuai Wang , Teng Zhao

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Efficiently creating a concise but comprehensive data set for training machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) is an under-explored problem. Active learning, which uses biased or unbiased molecular dynamics (MD) to generate candidate…

This paper introduces an uncertainty compensation-based robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems with nonlinear time-varying uncertainties. The framework integrates an L1 adaptive controller to compensate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-20 Ran Tao , Pan Zhao , Ilya Kolmanovsky , Naira Hovakimyan

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Xu Wu , Koroush Shirvan , Tomasz Kozlowski

Accurate prediction of surface energies and stabilities is essential for materials design, yet first-principles calculations remain computationally expensive and most existing interatomic potentials are trained only on bulk systems. Here,…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-10-01 Jaekyun Hwang , Taehun Lee , Yonghyuk Lee , Su-Hyun Yoo

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Douglas Spencer , Samual Nicholls , Michele Caprio

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for assessing the reliability of machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, identifying extrapolation regimes and enabling uncertainty-aware workflows…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Zhongyao Wang , Taoyong Cui , Jiawen Zou , Shufei Zhang , Bo Yan , Wanli Ouyang , Weimin Tan , Mao Su

Computational quantum chemistry plays a critical role in drug discovery, chemical synthesis, and materials science. While first-principles methods, such as density functional theory (DFT), provide high accuracy in modeling electronic…

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are increasingly used to replace computationally demanding electronic-structure calculations to model matter at the atomic scale. The most commonly used model architectures are constrained to…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-03-30 Filippo Bigi , Paolo Pegolo , Arslan Mazitov , Jonathan Schmidt , Michele Ceriotti

Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used for manufacturing decisions, yet are typically applied via deterministic thresholding of finite-sample estimates, ignoring uncertainty and leading to unstable outcomes near the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-16 Fei Jiang , Lei Yang

Universal machine learning interatomic potentials (uMLIPs) represent arguably the most successful application of machine learning to materials science, demonstrating remarkable performance across diverse applications. However, critical…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-08-26 Antoine Loew , Jonathan Schmidt , Silvana Botti , Miguel A. L. Marques

Neural networks (NNs) often assign high confidence to their predictions, even for points far out-of-distribution, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) a challenge. When they are employed to model interatomic potentials in materials…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Aik Rui Tan , Shingo Urata , Samuel Goldman , Johannes C. B. Dietschreit , Rafael Gómez-Bombarelli

Despite their capabilities, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) may produce plausible but erroneous outputs, hindering reliable deployment. Accurate uncertainty metrics could enable escalation of unreliable queries to human experts or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Gregory Kang Ruey Lau , Hieu Dao , Nicole Kan Hui Lin , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric