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When the number of assets is larger than the sample size, the minimum variance portfolio interpolates the training data, delivering pathological zero in-sample variance. We show that if the weights of the zero variance portfolio are learned…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Jinyuan Chang , Yi Ding , Zhentao Shi , Bo Zhang

In this paper we refine the procedure proposed by Lin et al. (2015) to estimate the density at a given quantile based on a resampling method. The approach consists on generating multiple samples of the zero-mean Gaussian variable from which…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-04 Beatriz Farah , Aurélien Latouche , Olivier Bouaziz

In Bayesian optimization, accounting for the importance of the output relative to the input is a crucial yet challenging exercise, as it can considerably improve the final result but often involves inaccurate and cumbersome entropy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-30 Antoine Blanchard , Themistoklis Sapsis

Importance sampling (IS) is a common reweighting strategy for off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. While it is consistent and unbiased, it can result in high variance updates to the weights for the value function. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-15 Matthew Schlegel , Wesley Chung , Daniel Graves , Jian Qian , Martha White

We tackle covariance estimation in low-sample scenarios, employing a structured covariance matrix with shrinkage methods. These involve convexly combining a low-bias/high-variance empirical estimate with a biased regularization estimator,…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-06-28 Olivier Flasseur , Eric Thiébaut , Loïc Denis , Maud Langlois

Sequential importance sampling algorithms have been defined to estimate likelihoods in models of ancestral population processes. However, these algorithms are based on features of the models with constant population size, and become…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Coralie Merle , Raphaël Leblois , François Rousset , Pierre Pudlo

There are many models, often called unnormalized models, whose normalizing constants are not calculated in closed form. Maximum likelihood estimation is not directly applicable to unnormalized models. Score matching, contrastive divergence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-27 Masatoshi Uehara , Takeru Matsuda , Fumiyasu Komaki

Off-policy policy estimators that use importance sampling (IS) can suffer from high variance in long-horizon domains, and there has been particular excitement over new IS methods that leverage the structure of Markov decision processes. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Yao Liu , Pierre-Luc Bacon , Emma Brunskill

We provide the first importance sampling variants of variance reduced algorithms for empirical risk minimization with non-convex loss functions. In particular, we analyze non-convex versions of SVRG, SAGA and SARAH. Our methods have the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-01 Samuel Horváth , Peter Richtárik

Importance sampling (IS) represents a fundamental technique for a large surge of off-policy reinforcement learning approaches. Policy gradient (PG) methods, in particular, significantly benefit from IS, enabling the effective reuse of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Matteo Papini , Giorgio Manganini , Alberto Maria Metelli , Marcello Restelli

In this paper, we propose a sampling-based planning and optimal control method of nonlinear systems under non-differentiable constraints. Motivated by developing scalable planning algorithms, we consider the optimal motion plan to be a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-12-19 Jie Fu

Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be highly variable when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-12 Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman , Yuling Yao , Jonah Gabry

Sampling a target probability distribution with an unknown normalization constant is a fundamental challenge in computational science and engineering. Recent work shows that algorithms derived by considering gradient flows in the space of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-12 Yifan Chen , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Jiaoyang Huang , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M Stuart

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Anas Cherradi , Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Sylvain Le Corff , Yohan Petetin , Julien Stoehr

A wide variety of optimization techniques, both exact and heuristic, tend to be biased samplers. This means that when attempting to find multiple uncorrelated solutions of a degenerate Boolean optimization problem a subset of the solution…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-05-14 Andrew J. Ochoa , Darryl C. Jacob , Salvatore Mandrà , Helmut G. Katzgraber

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-18 Jiming Jiang , Yihui Luan , You-Gan Wang

We derive an unbiased estimator for expectations over discrete random variables based on sampling without replacement, which reduces variance as it avoids duplicate samples. We show that our estimator can be derived as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Wouter Kool , Herke van Hoof , Max Welling

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inference when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We propose an annealed importance sampling procedure for estimating expectations with respect to the posterior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-26 M. -N. Tran , C. Strickland , M. K. Pitt , R. Kohn

A new method, called the method of self-similar approximants, and its recent developments are described. The method is based on the ideas of renormalization group theory and optimal control theory. It allows for the effective extrapolation…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-05-20 V. I. Yukalov , E. P. Yukalova

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-04-28 Bernard Lapeyre , Jérôme Lelong