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We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for solving sequential decision making problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to contextual bandits and reinforcement learning. This is accomplished by a probabilistic model-based approach…

In this paper, we study Interaction-Grounded Learning (IGL) [Xie et al., 2021], a paradigm designed for realistic scenarios where the learner receives indirect feedback generated by an unknown mechanism, rather than explicit numerical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Mengxiao Zhang , Yuheng Zhang , Haipeng Luo , Paul Mineiro

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xinkun Nie , Stefan Wager

Regularized Markov Decision Processes serve as models of sequential decision making under uncertainty wherein the decision maker has limited information processing capacity and/or aversion to model ambiguity. With functional approximation,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jiachen Xi , Alfredo Garcia , Petar Momcilovic

Minimum Description Length (MDL) provides a framework and an objective for principled model evaluation. It formalizes Occam's Razor and can be applied to data from non-stationary sources. In the prequential formulation of MDL, the objective…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Jorg Bornschein , Yazhe Li , Marcus Hutter

We derive a family of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning methods for agents, who face sequential decision-making tasks in uncertain environments. By applying a utility function to the temporal difference (TD) error, nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-10 Yun Shen , Michael J. Tobia , Tobias Sommer , Klaus Obermayer

We study reinforcement learning methods with linear function approximation under non-Markov state and cost processes. We first consider the policy evaluation method and show that the algorithm converges under suitable ergodicity conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-05 Ali Devran Kara

End-to-end learning has become a widely applicable and studied problem in training predictive ML models to be aware of their impact on downstream decision-making tasks. These end-to-end models often outperform traditional methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Rares Cristian , Pavithra Harsha , Georgia Perakis , Brian Quanz

Data-driven individualized decision making has recently received increasing research interests. Most existing methods rely on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, which unfortunately cannot be ensured in practice especially in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-26 Zhengling Qi , Rui Miao , Xiaoke Zhang

Meta-learning has been proposed as a promising machine learning topic in recent years, with important applications to image classification, robotics, computer games, and control systems. In this paper, we study the problem of using…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-28 Yunian Pan , Quanyan Zhu

Estimating what would be an individual's potential response to varying levels of exposure to a treatment is of high practical relevance for several important fields, such as healthcare, economics and public policy. However, existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Patrick Schwab , Lorenz Linhardt , Stefan Bauer , Joachim M. Buhmann , Walter Karlen

Causal learning is the key to obtaining stable predictions and answering \textit{what if} problems in decision-makings. In causal learning, it is central to seek methods to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Qi Wu , Xing Yan

Neural operators, as an efficient surrogate model for learning the solutions of PDEs, have received extensive attention in the field of scientific machine learning. Among them, attention-based neural operators have become one of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Zipeng Xiao , Zhongkai Hao , Bokai Lin , Zhijie Deng , Hang Su

We investigate the problem of learning linear quadratic regulators (LQR) in a multi-task, heterogeneous, and model-free setting. We characterize the stability and personalization guarantees of a policy gradient-based (PG) model-agnostic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Leonardo F. Toso , Donglin Zhan , James Anderson , Han Wang

While deep learning models often achieve strong task performance, their successes are hampered by their inability to disentangle spurious correlations from causative factors, such as when they use protected attributes (e.g., race, gender,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Kurtis Evan David , Qiang Liu , Ruth Fong

Predictive uncertainty-a model's self awareness regarding its accuracy on an input-is key for both building robust models via training interventions and for test-time applications such as selective classification. We propose a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-04 Nishant Jain , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Pradeep Shenoy

Deep Q-Learning has been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks in the past several years. However, the architecture of the vanilla Deep Q-Network is not suited to deal with partially observable environments such as 3D video games.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-12 Clément Romac , Vincent Béraud

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-10 Erik Sverdrup , Yifan Cui

In human decision-making tasks, individuals learn through trials and prediction errors. When individuals learn the task, some are more influenced by good outcomes, while others weigh bad outcomes more heavily. Such confirmation bias can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Jiacheng Shen , Lihan Feng