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Identification in a regression discontinuity (RD) research design hinges on the discontinuity in the probability of treatment when a covariate (assignment variable) exceeds a known threshold. When the assignment variable is measured with…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-07 Zhuan Pei , Yi Shen

We develop a framework for identifying and estimating persuasion effects in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The RD persuasion rate measures the probability that individuals at the threshold would take the action if exposed to a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-01 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Qian Li , Zhichao Wang , Shaowu Liu , Gang Li , Guandong Xu

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

This paper develops a unified framework for the identification, estimation, and uniform inference of local treatment effects (LTEs) in sharp regression kink designs (RKDs). These LTEs quantify the effect of a marginal change in the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-03 Zhixin Wang , Zhengyu Zhang

Regression discontinuity designs have been widely used in observational studies to estimate causal effects of an intervention or treatment at a cutoff point. We propose a generalization of regression discontinuity designs to handle complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Daisuke Kurisu , Yidong Zhou , Taisuke Otsu , Hans-Georg Müller

The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental approach used to estimate the causal effects of an intervention assigned based on a cutoff criterion. RDD exploits the idea that close to the cutoff units below and above are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-02 Julia Kowalska , Mark van de Wiel , Stéphanie van der Pas

The difference-in-differences (DID) research design is a key identification strategy which allows researchers to estimate causal effects under the parallel trends assumption. While the parallel trends assumption is counterfactual and cannot…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Jonas M. Mikhaeil , Christopher Harshaw

The regression discontinuity (RD) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it a position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-14 Drew Stommes , P. M. Aronow , Fredrik Sävje

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across a variety of domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on critical independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-18 Mayleen Cortez , Matthew Eichhorn , Christina Lee Yu

We study regression discontinuity designs in which many predetermined covariates, possibly much more than the number of observations, can be used to increase the precision of treatment effect estimates. We consider a two-step estimator…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-06 Alexander Kreiß , Christoph Rothe

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang

The Regression Discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi-experimental design which emulates a randomised study by exploiting situations where treatment is assigned according to a continuous variable as is common in many drug treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-28 Sara Geneletti , Federico Ricciardi , Aidan O'Keeffe , Gianluca Baio

Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Baoluo Sun , Zhiqiang Tan

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-11 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Masahiro Kato

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…