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Traditional statistical inference in cluster randomized trials typically invokes the asymptotic theory that requires the number of clusters to approach infinity. In this article, we propose an alternative conformal causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-03 Bingkai Wang , Fan Li , Mengxin Yu

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently emerged as planners for language-instructed agents, generating sequences of actions to accomplish natural language tasks. However, their reliability remains a challenge, especially in long-horizon…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Jun Wang , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik , Yiannis Kantaros

We introduce a new logic called Signal Convolution Logic (SCL) that combines temporal logic with convolutional filters from digital signal processing. SCL enables to reason about the percentage of time a formula is satisfied in a bounded…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-09-18 Simone Silvetti , Laura Nenzi , Ezio Bartocci , Luca Bortolussi

In many classification applications, the prediction of a deep neural network (DNN) based classifier needs to be accompanied by some confidence indication. Two popular approaches for that aim are: 1) Calibration: modifies the classifier's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Yun Xie , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

Signal temporal logic (STL) is an expressive language to specify time-bound real-world robotic tasks and safety specifications. Recently, there has been an interest in learning optimal policies to satisfy STL specifications via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Harish Venkataraman , Derya Aksaray , Peter Seiler

Large language models are increasingly deployed in settings where reliability matters, yet output-level uncertainty signals such as token probabilities, entropy, and self-consistency can become brittle under calibration--deployment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Yanli Wang , Peng Kuang , Xiaoyu Han , Kaidi Xu , Haohan Wang

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Roberto I. Oliveira , Paulo Orenstein , Thiago Ramos , João Vitor Romano

Conformal inference is a method that provides prediction sets for machine learning models, operating independently of the underlying distributional assumptions and relying solely on the exchangeability of training and test data. Despite its…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-01 Daniela Corbetta , Livio Finos , Ludwig Geistlinger , Davide Risso

We present a framework to synthesize control policies for nonlinear dynamical systems from complex temporal constraints specified in a rich temporal logic called Signal Temporal Logic (STL). We propose a novel smooth and differentiable STL…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-04-29 Iman Haghighi , Noushin Mehdipour , Ezio Bartocci , Calin Belta

Autonomous agents often operate in uncertain environments where their decisions are made based on beliefs over states of targets. We are interested in controller synthesis for complex tasks defined over belief spaces. Designing such…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-10-30 Chanyeol Yoo , Calin Belta

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) provides a convenient way of encoding complex control objectives for robotic and cyber-physical systems. The state-of-the-art in trajectory synthesis for STL is based on Mixed-Integer Convex Programming (MICP).…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-04 Vince Kurtz , Hai Lin

Conformal prediction is widely adopted in uncertainty quantification, due to its post-hoc, distribution-free, and model-agnostic properties. In the realm of modern deep learning, researchers have proposed Feature Conformal Prediction (FCP),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Zihao Tang , Boyuan Wang , Chuan Wen , Jiaye Teng

Contrastive learning (CL) has emerged as a promising approach for representation learning in time series data by embedding similar pairs closely while distancing dissimilar ones. However, existing CL methods often introduce false negative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Yu Wu , Ting Dang , Dimitris Spathis , Hong Jia , Cecilia Mascolo

We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Lars Lindemann , Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , George J. Pappas , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

Predictive monitoring -- making predictions about future states and monitoring if the predicted states satisfy requirements -- offers a promising paradigm in supporting the decision making of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Existing works of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Meiyi Ma , John Stankovic , Ezio Bartocci , Lu Feng