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Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Linus Jeary , Tom Kuipers , Mehran Hosseini , Nicola Paoletti

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-19 Alireza Javanmardi , David Stutz , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper presents a smooth parameterization of continuous-time Signal Temporal Logic (CT-STL) specifications for nonconvex trajectory optimization that is sound and complete up to the accuracy of the underlying numerical integration…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Samet Uzun , Behçet Açıkmeşe

Online monitoring aims to evaluate or to predict, at runtime, whether or not the behaviors of a system satisfy some desired specification. It plays a key role in safety-critical cyber-physical systems. In this work, we propose a new…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-10 Xinyi Yu , Weijie Dong , Xiang Yin , Shaoyuan Li

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

We present a robust control framework for time-critical systems in which satisfying real-time constraints robustly is of utmost importance for the safety of the system. Signal Temporal Logic (STL) provides a formal means to express a large…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-15 Alena Rodionova , Lars Lindemann , Manfred Morari , George J. Pappas

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) is a formal language for describing a broad range of real-valued, temporal properties in cyber-physical systems. While there has been extensive research on verification and control synthesis from STL…

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

Softwarized radio access networks (RANs), such as those based on the Open RAN (O-RAN) architecture, generate rich streams of key performance indicators (KPIs) that can be leveraged to extract actionable intelligence for network…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-24 Jiechen Chen , Michele Polese , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) is a powerful formal language for specifying real-time specifications of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Transforming specifications written in natural language into STL formulas automatically has attracted…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Yue Fang , Jin Zhi , Jie An , Hongshen Chen , Xiaohong Chen , Naijun Zhan

In system analysis, conformance indicates that two systems simultaneously satisfy the same set of specifications of interest; thus, the results from analyzing one system automatically transfer to the other, or one system can safely replace…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-03 Yu Wang , Mojtaba Zarei , Borzoo Bonakdarpoor , Miroslav Pajic

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Conformal Prediction (CP) algorithms estimate the uncertainty of a prediction model by calibrating its outputs on labeled data. The same calibration scheme usually applies to any model and data without modifications. The obtained prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Nicolo Colombo

We study the verification problem of stochastic systems under signal temporal logic (STL) specifications. We propose a novel approach that enables the verification of the probabilistic satisfaction of STL specifications for nonlinear…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Liqian Ma , Zishun Liu , Hongzhe Yu , Yongxin Chen

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Meshi Bashari , Roy Maor Lotan , Yonghoon Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri