Related papers: STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and…

Streamflow forecasts are critical to guide water resource management, mitigate drought and flood effects, and develop climate-smart infrastructure and governance. Many global regions, however, have limited streamflow observations to guide…

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasting is vital for decision-making in agriculture, energy production, and emergency management. However, it remains a challenging and underexplored problem due to the chaotic nature of the…

AI-based systems, such as Google's GenCast, have recently redefined the state of the art in weather forecasting, offering more accurate and timely predictions of both everyday weather and extreme events. While these systems are on the verge…

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Accurate precipitation nowcasting is crucial for applications such as flood prediction, disaster management, agriculture optimization, and transportation management. While many studies have approached this task using sequence-to-sequence…

Handling anomalies is a critical preprocessing step in multivariate time series prediction. However, existing approaches that separate anomaly preprocessing from model training for multivariate time series prediction encounter significant…

Accurate and robust weather forecasting remains a fundamental challenge due to the inherent spatio-temporal complexity of atmospheric systems. In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised learning framework that leverages…

Spatio-temporal prediction is a pivotal task with broad applications in traffic management, climate monitoring, energy scheduling, etc. However, existing methodologies often struggle to balance model expressiveness and computational…

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local…

The recent developments of deep learning models that capture complex temporal patterns of crop phenology have greatly advanced crop classification from Satellite Image Time Series (SITS). However, when applied to target regions spatially…

Transformer-based scientific foundation models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings, but current architectures give deterministic outputs and provide limited support for calibrated predictive uncertainty. We propose Stochastic…

Spatio-temporal change of support methods are designed for statistical analysis on spatial and temporal domains which can differ from those of the observed data. Previous work introduced a parsimonious class of Bayesian hierarchical…

Spatio-Temporal (ST) prediction is crucial for making informed decisions in urban location-based applications like ride-sharing. However, existing ST models often require region partition as a prerequisite, resulting in two main pitfalls.…

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical…

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Despite substantial progress, most existing methods still treat forecasting as a static, single-pass regression problem. In contrast, human…

The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce…

Accurate nowcasting of convective clouds from satellite imagery is essential for mitigating the impacts of meteorological disasters, especially in developing countries and remote regions with limited ground-based observations. Recent…

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

Given real-time sensor data streams obtained from machines, how can we continuously predict when a machine failure will occur? This work aims to continuously forecast the timing of future events by analyzing multi-sensor data streams. A key…