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The development of highly fluent large language models (LLMs) has prompted increased interest in assessing their reasoning and problem-solving capabilities. We investigate whether several LLMs can solve a classic type of deductive reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Spencer M. Seals , Valerie L. Shalin

Several recent works have argued that Large Language Models (LLMs) can be used to tame the data deluge in the cybersecurity field, by improving the automation of Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) tasks. This work presents an evaluation…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Emanuele Mezzi , Fabio Massacci , Katja Tuma

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly assisting users in the real world, yet their reliability remains a concern. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has been heralded as a tool to enhance human-LLM collaboration by enabling users to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Siddartha Devic , Tejas Srinivasan , Jesse Thomason , Willie Neiswanger , Vatsal Sharan

Large language models optimized with techniques like RLHF have achieved good alignment in being helpful and harmless. However, post-alignment, these language models often exhibit overconfidence, where the expressed confidence does not…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Mozhi Zhang , Mianqiu Huang , Rundong Shi , Linsen Guo , Chong Peng , Peng Yan , Yaqian Zhou , Xipeng Qiu

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in quantitative finance for stock price forecasting. This review synthesizes recent applications of LLMs in this domain, including extracting sentiment from financial news and social…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-08 Olivia Zhang , Zhilin Zhang

We study estimation and statistical inference for reward models used in aligning large language models (LLMs). A key component of LLM alignment is reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), where humans compare pairs of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-04 Pangpang Liu , Junwei Lu , Will Wei Sun

Although large language models (LLMs) are highly interactive and extendable, current approaches to ensure reliability in deployments remain mostly limited to rejecting outputs with high uncertainty in order to avoid misinformation. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 T. Duy Nguyen-Hien , Desi R. Ivanova , Yee Whye Teh , Wee Sun Lee

This paper considers the challenges Large Language Models (LLMs) face when reasoning over text that includes information involving uncertainty explicitly quantified via probability values. This type of reasoning is relevant to a variety of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Aliakbar Nafar , Kristen Brent Venable , Parisa Kordjamshidi

Producing trustworthy and reliable Large Language Models (LLMs) has become increasingly important as their usage becomes more widespread. Calibration seeks to achieve this by improving the alignment between the model's confidence and the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Glenn Zhang , Treasure Mayowa , Jason Fan , Yicheng Fu , Aaron Sandoval , Sean O'Brien , Kevin Zhu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making scenarios that involve risk assessment, yet their alignment with human economic rationality remains unclear. In this study, we investigate whether LLMs exhibit risk…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-16 Jiaxin Liu , Yixuan Tang , Yi Yang , Kar Yan Tam

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Zailong Tian , Zhuoheng Han , Yanzhe Chen , Haozhe Xu , Xi Yang , Richeng Xuan , Houfeng Wang , Lizi Liao

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become widely used to model and simulate human behavior, understanding their biases becomes critical. We developed an experimental framework using Big Five personality surveys and uncovered a previously…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Aadesh Salecha , Molly E. Ireland , Shashanka Subrahmanya , João Sedoc , Lyle H. Ungar , Johannes C. Eichstaedt

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence"…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Stephanie Lin , Jacob Hilton , Owain Evans

The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has garnered significant popularity and wielded immense power across various domains within Natural Language Processing (NLP). While their capabilities are undeniably impressive, it is crucial to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Sara Abdali , Jia He , CJ Barberan , Richard Anarfi

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xunzhi Wang , Zhuowei Zhang , Gaonan Chen , Qiongyu Li , Bitong Luo , Zhixin Han , Haotian Wang , Zhiyu li , Hang Gao , Mengting Hu

The recent popularity of large language models (LLMs) has brought a significant impact to boundless fields, particularly through their open-ended ecosystem such as the APIs, open-sourced models, and plugins. However, with their widespread…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-31 Wentao Ye , Mingfeng Ou , Tianyi Li , Yipeng chen , Xuetao Ma , Yifan Yanggong , Sai Wu , Jie Fu , Gang Chen , Haobo Wang , Junbo Zhao

Large language models (LLMs) have exploded in popularity in the past few years and have achieved undeniably impressive results on benchmarks as varied as question answering and text summarization. We provide a simple new prompting strategy…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Joshua Albrecht , Ellie Kitanidis , Abraham J. Fetterman

Large language model (LLM) simulations of human behavior have the potential to revolutionize the social and behavioral sciences, if and only if they faithfully reflect real human behaviors. Current evaluations of simulation fidelity are…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Tiancheng Hu , Joachim Baumann , Lorenzo Lupo , Nigel Collier , Dirk Hovy , Paul Röttger

The versatility of Large Language Models (LLMs) on natural language understanding tasks has made them popular for research in social sciences. To properly understand the properties and innate personas of LLMs, researchers have performed…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Bangzhao Shu , Lechen Zhang , Minje Choi , Lavinia Dunagan , Lajanugen Logeswaran , Moontae Lee , Dallas Card , David Jurgens