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Large language models (LLMs) are widely used as scalable evaluators of model responses in lieu of human annotators. However, imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the LLM judges induce bias in naive evaluation scores. We propose a simple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Chungpa Lee , Thomas Zeng , Jongwon Jeong , Jy-yong Sohn , Kangwook Lee

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant advances in natural language processing, but their underlying mechanisms are often misunderstood. Despite exhibiting coherent answers and apparent reasoning behaviors, LLMs rely on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Bo Zhou , Daniel Geißler , Paul Lukowicz

As LLM-as-a-Judge emerges as a new paradigm for assessing large language models (LLMs), concerns have been raised regarding the alignment, bias, and stability of LLM evaluators. While substantial work has focused on alignment and bias,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Qiujie Xie , Qingqiu Li , Zhuohao Yu , Yuejie Zhang , Yue Zhang , Linyi Yang

Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can predict whether they will succeed on a given task and whether their predictions improve as they progress through multi-step tasks. We also investigate whether LLMs can learn from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Casey O. Barkan , Sid Black , Oliver Sourbut

Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable proficiency in natural language tasks, yet their frequent overconfidence-misalignment between predicted confidence and true correctness-poses significant risks in critical decision-making…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Prateek Chhikara

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strikingly conflicting behaviors: they can appear steadfastly overconfident in their initial answers whilst at the same time being prone to excessive doubt when challenged. To investigate this apparent…

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Sunnie S. Y. Kim , Q. Vera Liao , Mihaela Vorvoreanu , Stephanie Ballard , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan

_Uncertainty expressions_ such as "probably" or "highly unlikely" are pervasive in human language. While prior work has established that there is population-level agreement in terms of how humans quantitatively interpret these expressions,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Catarina G Belem , Markelle Kelly , Mark Steyvers , Sameer Singh , Padhraic Smyth

The tendency of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations raises concerns regarding their reliability. Therefore, confidence estimations indicating the extent of trustworthiness of the generations become essential. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Boyang Xue , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Zezhong Wang , Yiming Du , Bin Liang , Wenxuan Zhang , Kam-Fai Wong

While large language models (LLMs) improve performance by explicit reasoning, their responses are often overconfident, even though they include linguistic expressions demonstrating uncertainty. In this work, we identify what linguistic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shintaro Ozaki , Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Katsuhiko Hayashi , Taro Watanabe

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Yudi Pawitan , Chris Holmes

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

The tendency of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations raises concerns regarding their reliability. Therefore, confidence estimations indicating the extent of trustworthiness of the generations become essential. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Boyang Xue , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Zezhong Wang , Yiming Du , Bin Liang , Kam-Fai Wong

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for automated grading, but their outputs can be unreliable. Rather than improving grading accuracy directly, we address a complementary problem: \textit{predicting when an LLM grader is likely to be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Robinson Ferrer , Damla Turgut , Zhongzhou Chen , Shashank Sonkar

In day-to-day communication, people often approximate the truth - for example, rounding the time or omitting details - in order to be maximally helpful to the listener. How do large language models (LLMs) handle such nuanced trade-offs? To…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Ryan Liu , Theodore R. Sumers , Ishita Dasgupta , Thomas L. Griffiths

To maintain user trust, large language models (LLMs) should signal low confidence on examples where they are incorrect, instead of misleading the user. The standard approach of estimating confidence is to use the softmax probabilities of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Vaishnavi Shrivastava , Percy Liang , Ananya Kumar

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable performance across various downstream tasks, but they may generate inaccurate or false information with a confident tone. One of the possible solutions is to empower the LLM confidence…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Haixia Han , Tingyun Li , Shisong Chen , Jie Shi , Chengyu Du , Yanghua Xiao , Jiaqing Liang , Xin Lin

Words of estimative probability (WEPs), such as ''maybe'' or ''probably not'' are ubiquitous in natural language for communicating estimative uncertainty, compared with direct statements involving numerical probability. Human estimative…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-27 Zhisheng Tang , Ke Shen , Mayank Kejriwal

Large language models (LLMs) could be valuable personal AI agents across various domains, provided they can precisely follow user instructions. However, recent studies have shown significant limitations in LLMs' instruction-following…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Juyeon Heo , Miao Xiong , Christina Heinze-Deml , Jaya Narain