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Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-30 Yuyang Wang , Alex Smola , Danielle C. Maddix , Jan Gasthaus , Dean Foster , Tim Januschowski

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries. Prior research on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Jiawen Zhang , Xumeng Wen , Zhenwei Zhang , Shun Zheng , Jia Li , Jiang Bian

Time series forecasting, which predicts future values from past observations, plays a central role in many domains and has driven the development of highly accurate neural network models. However, the complexity of these models often limits…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Hiroki Tomioka , Genta Yoshimura

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-23 Jingquan Yan , Hao Wang

Deep learning models developed for time-series associated tasks have become more widely researched nowadays. However, due to the unintuitive nature of time-series data, the interpretability problem -- where we understand what is under the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-25 Ziqi Zhao , Yucheng Shi , Shushan Wu , Fan Yang , Wenzhan Song , Ninghao Liu

As time evolves, data within specific domains exhibit predictability that motivates time series forecasting to predict future trends from historical data. However, current deep forecasting methods can achieve promising performance but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Ziran Liang , Rui An , Wenqi Fan , Yanghui Rao , Yuxuan Liang

Forecasting is critical in areas such as finance, biology, and healthcare. Despite the progress in the field, making accurate forecasts remains challenging because real-world time series contain both global trends, local fine-grained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Zihao Chen , Alexandre Andre , Wenrui Ma , Ian Knight , Sergey Shuvaev , Eva Dyer

Image recognition with prototypes is considered an interpretable alternative for black box deep learning models. Classification depends on the extent to which a test image "looks like" a prototype. However, perceptual similarity for humans…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-18 Meike Nauta , Annemarie Jutte , Jesper Provoost , Christin Seifert

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Wei Fan , Shun Zheng , Xiaohan Yi , Wei Cao , Yanjie Fu , Jiang Bian , Tie-Yan Liu

Detecting abnormal patterns that deviate from a certain regular repeating pattern in time series is essential in many big data applications. However, the lack of labels, the dynamic nature of time series data, and unforeseeable abnormal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Bin Li , Carsten Jentsch , Emmanuel Müller

Deep learning has made significant progress in the past decade, and demonstrates potential to solve problems with extensive social impact. In high-stakes decision making areas such as law, experts often require interpretability for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-29 Chu Fei Luo , Rohan Bhambhoria , Samuel Dahan , Xiaodan Zhu

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-29 Bryan Lim , Sercan O. Arik , Nicolas Loeff , Tomas Pfister

Time series (TS) forecasting has been an unprecedentedly popular problem in recent years, with ubiquitous applications in both scientific and business fields. Various approaches have been introduced to time series analysis, including both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-20 Ziyou Guo , Yan Sun , Tieru Wu

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Paolo Mancuso , Veronica Piccialli , Antonio M. Sudoso

We propose a novel inherently interpretable machine learning method that bases decisions on few relevant examples that we call prototypes. Our method, ProtoAttend, can be integrated into a wide range of neural network architectures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-27 Sercan O. Arik , Tomas Pfister

Prototypical parts-based models offer a "this looks like that" paradigm for intrinsic interpretability, yet they typically struggle with ImageNet-scale generalization and often require computationally expensive backbone finetuning.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Mikołaj Janusz , Adam Wróbel , Bartosz Zieliński , Dawid Rymarczyk

Prototype-based interpretability methods provide intuitive explanations of model prediction by comparing samples to a reference set of memorized exemplars or typical representatives in terms of similarity. In the field of sequential data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Yifei Zhang , Neng Gao , Cunqing Ma

Multivariate time-series forecasting is vital in various domains, e.g., economic planning and weather prediction. Deep train-from-scratch models have exhibited effective performance yet require large amounts of data, which limits real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Ching Chang , Wei-Yao Wang , Wen-Chih Peng , Tien-Fu Chen

Modern time series forecasting methods, such as Transformer and its variants, have shown strong ability in sequential data modeling. To achieve high performance, they usually rely on redundant or unexplainable structures to model complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-30 Jingyi Hou , Zhen Dong , Jiayu Zhou , Zhijie Liu

The rapid growth of user-generated text across digital platforms has intensified the need for interpretable models capable of fine-grained text classification and explanation. Existing prototype-based models offer intuitive explanations but…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Utsav Kumar Nareti , Suraj Kumar , Soumya Pandey , Soumi Chattopadhyay , Chandranath Adak , Sankha Subhra Mullick