Related papers: A consistent SIR model on time scales with exact s…
We present a class of SEIR Markov chain models for infectious diseases observed over discrete time in a random human population living in a closed environment. The population changes over time through random births, deaths, and transitions…
We present a derivation of the classical SIR model through a mean-field approximation from a discrete version of SIR. We then obtain a hyperbolic forward Kolmogorov equation, and show that its projected characteristics recover the standard…
We study dynamics of a variant of the SIR the model, where we assume that individuals respond differently to dynamics of the epidemic. Their heterogeneous response is modeled by the Preisach hysteresis operator. The degree of heterogeneity…
We present an epidemiological compartment model, SAIR(S), that explicitly captures the dynamics of asymptomatic infected individuals in an epidemic spread process. We first present a group model and then discuss networked versions. We…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…
Recent work from public health experts suggests that incorporating human behavior is crucial in faithfully modeling an epidemic. We present a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation SIR-type population model for an epidemic…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
This paper considers a general stochastic SIR epidemic model driven by a multidimensional Levy jump process with heavy tailed increments and possible correlation between noise components. In this framework, we derive new sufficient…
In this paper we propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a set up under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems…
The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
We consider the SIR epidemiological model applied to the evolution of COVID-19 with two approaches. In the first place we fit a global SIR model, with time delay, and constant parameters throughout the outbreak, including the contagion…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
In this work, some new exact and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for the SIR epidemic model, which is formulated in terms of dimensionless variables and parameters. The susceptibles population (S) is in this way explicitly…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
We study a dynamic infection spread model, inspired by the discrete time SIR model, where infections are spread via non-isolated infected individuals. While infection keeps spreading over time, a limited capacity testing is performed at…